Challenger Pro League · Regular Season - 9
Seraing United vs Liège
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stade du Pairay, Seraing
Seraing United host Liège on Fri 30 Oct 2026 (Challenger Pro League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Seraing United 40%, draw 29%, Liège 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Seraing United €205K, Liège €219K.
- Home advantage makes Seraing United the favourite here: it adds 4 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in attacking (Challenger Pro League): Seraing United rank #14 of 15, Liège #3.
- Liège's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Seraing United goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Seraing United 1345 · Liège 1348
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Seraing United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 (Poor) · Elo 1457
Liège · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Average) · Elo 1528
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Seraing United
14th in Challenger Pro League · 2 pts from 7
- 11 OctLKAA Gent II Belgium Challenger Pro League1398
- 19 SepDKRC Genk II Belgium Challenger Pro League1384
- 12 SepLSporting Hasselt Belgium Challenger Pro League1410
- 4 SepLDender Belgium Challenger Pro League1340
- 5 AprWPatro Eisden Belgium Challenger Pro League1474
Liège
13th in Challenger Pro League · 5 pts from 7
- 10 OctLBeerschot VA Belgium Challenger Pro League1403
- 19 SepLAS Eupen Belgium Challenger Pro League1355
- 13 SepDClub Brugge II Belgium Challenger Pro League1393
- 6 SepDK. Lierse S.K. Belgium Challenger Pro League1408
- 29 AugLDender Belgium Challenger Pro League1409
Season outlook
From the Challenger Pro League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seraing United | 2 /7 | 23.9 | 0% | 0% | 81% | 15th |
| Liège | 5 /7 | 27.7 | 0% | <1% | 61% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 15th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Seraing United: direct · low-volume (how Arnauld Mercier plays) · Liège: direct (how Gaëtan Englebert plays)