Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5
SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
SC Paderborn 07Team 1950VfB StuttgartTeam 2140We gave VfB Stuttgart 48% to win: they did.
- 25'Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabot 2226 +11* assist Angelo Stiller 2243 +15*VfB Stuttgart:Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabot 2226 +11* assist Angelo Stiller 2243 +15*
- Marvin Pieringer 1910 −8*45'SC Paderborn 07:Marvin Pieringer 1910 −8*
- Rayan Philippe 1903 −8* for Marvin Pieringer 1910 −8*70'SC Paderborn 07:Rayan Philippe 1903 −8* for Marvin Pieringer 1910 −8*
- Steffen Tigges 1883 −8* for Stefano Marino 1822 −8*70'SC Paderborn 07:Steffen Tigges 1883 −8* for Stefano Marino 1822 −8*
- 72'Finn Jeltsch 2205 −3* for Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabot 2226 +11*VfB Stuttgart:Finn Jeltsch 2205 −3* for Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabot 2226 +11*
- 77'Bilal El Khannouss 2269 −5* for Jamie Leweling 2230 0*VfB Stuttgart:Bilal El Khannouss 2269 −5* for Jamie Leweling 2230 0*
- 77'Dženan Pejčinović 1808 −4* for Ermedin Demirović 2201 +7VfB Stuttgart:Dženan Pejčinović 1808 −4* for Ermedin Demirović 2201 +7
- Oliver Batista Meier 1687 −8* for Laurin Ulrich 1865 −8*80'SC Paderborn 07:Oliver Batista Meier 1687 −8* for Laurin Ulrich 1865 −8*
- 83'Chris Führich 2201 +16* assist Angelo Stiller 2243 +15*VfB Stuttgart:Chris Führich 2201 +16* assist Angelo Stiller 2243 +15*
- Felix Götze 1942 −9* for Mattes Hansen 1975 −19*85'SC Paderborn 07:Felix Götze 1942 −9* for Mattes Hansen 1975 −19*
- Jonah Sticker 1705 −8* for Tjark Scheller 2013 −14*85'SC Paderborn 07:Jonah Sticker 1705 −8* for Tjark Scheller 2013 −14*
- 85'Grischa Prömel 2075 −10* for Deniz Undav 2232 +13*VfB Stuttgart:Grischa Prömel 2075 −10* for Deniz Undav 2232 +13*
- 85'Leo Sauer 1951 +1 for Chris Führich 2201 +16*VfB Stuttgart:Leo Sauer 1951 +1 for Chris Führich 2201 +16*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 26% · 26% · 48%(SC Paderborn 07 · draw · VfB Stuttgart)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 0–2 had 8%.
- Average value of the starting XI: SC Paderborn 07 €3.2M, VfB Stuttgart €13.5M.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
SC Paderborn 07
12th in Bundesliga · 4 pts from 4
- 20 SepW1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga1919
- 12 SepLBorussia Dortmund Bundesliga1921
- 5 SepLSC Freiburg Bundesliga1949
- 29 AugDFSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga1923
- 23 AugWPhönix Lübeck Germany DFB Pokal1880
VfB Stuttgart
15th in Bundesliga · 3 pts from 4
- 19 SepLBorussia Dortmund Bundesliga2190
- 12 SepL1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga2147
- 9 SepWViking UEFA Champions League2191
- 4 SepW1. FC Köln Bundesliga2144
- 28 AugLBayern München Bundesliga2135
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 | 4 /4 | 34.2 | 0% | <1% | 44% | 17th |
| VfB Stuttgart | 3 /4 | 51.4 | <1% | 20% | <1% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
SC Paderborn 07 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2029
VfB Stuttgart · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2174
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
SC Paderborn 07: balanced profile (how Ralf Kettemann plays) · VfB Stuttgart: possession-based · creative (how Sebastian Hoeneß plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.