Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
SC Paderborn 07 host Hamburger SV on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: SC Paderborn 07 27%, draw 28%, Hamburger SV 45%.
- Average value of the expected XI: SC Paderborn 07 €3.6M, Hamburger SV €8.1M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. SC Paderborn 07 goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–08%
- 0–28%
- 2–17%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.7 pts
Team Elo: SC Paderborn 07 1885 · Hamburger SV 2060
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
SC Paderborn 07 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1978
Hamburger SV · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2151
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
SC Paderborn 07
16th in Bundesliga · 5 pts from 6
- 17 OctDWerder Bremen Bundesliga1950
- 10 OctLVfB Stuttgart Bundesliga1968
- 20 SepW1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga1919
- 12 SepLBorussia Dortmund Bundesliga1921
- 5 SepLSC Freiburg Bundesliga1949
Hamburger SV
9th in Bundesliga · 9 pts from 6
- 17 OctWVfB Stuttgart Bundesliga2013
- 10 OctW1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga2026
- 19 SepW1. FC Köln Bundesliga2056
- 13 SepLRB Leipzig Bundesliga2015
- 6 SepLFSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga2017
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 | 5 /6 | 31.5 | 0% | 0% | 60% | 17th |
| Hamburger SV | 9 /6 | 46.7 | 0% | 5% | 2% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
SC Paderborn 07: balanced profile (how Ralf Kettemann plays) · Hamburger SV: balanced profile (how Merlin Polzin plays)