Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5
SC Freiburg 2–1 FC Schalke 04
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg
SC FreiburgTeam 2208
FC Schalke 04Team 1994Match story
SC Freiburg · draw · FC Schalke 04Before kick-off: 58% · 24% · 18%
Last reading, 90+6': 99% · 1% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Maximilian Eggestein 10'
- Keisuke Goto 85'
- Kenan Karaman 30'
We gave SC Freiburg 58% to win: they did.
- Maximilian Eggestein 2297 +12*10'
SC Freiburg:Maximilian Eggestein 2297 +12* - 30'Kenan Karaman 1954 −12* assist Adrian Tobias Gantenbein 1810 −8*
FC Schalke 04:Kenan Karaman 1954 −12* assist Adrian Tobias Gantenbein 1810 −8* - Yuito Suzuki 2257 −1*49'
SC Freiburg:Yuito Suzuki 2257 −1* - Matthias Ginter 2296 +9*57'
SC Freiburg:Matthias Ginter 2296 +9* - Yuito Suzuki 2257 −1*64'
SC Freiburg:Yuito Suzuki 2257 −1* - Lucas Höler 2090 −7* for Igor Matanovic 2317 +565'
SC Freiburg:Lucas Höler 2090 −7* for Igor Matanovic 2317 +5 - Cyriaque Irié 1720 −1* for Jan-Niklas Beste 2254 −1*69'
SC Freiburg:Cyriaque Irié 1720 −1* for Jan-Niklas Beste 2254 −1* - Keisuke Goto 1995 +4* for Yannick Engelhardt 2196 +1*69'
SC Freiburg:Keisuke Goto 1995 +4* for Yannick Engelhardt 2196 +1* - 69'Ron Schallenberg 1932 −9* for Satoshi Tanaka 1854 −8*
FC Schalke 04:Ron Schallenberg 1932 −9* for Satoshi Tanaka 1854 −8* - 69'Edin Džeko 1468 −16 for Junior Chukwubuike Adamu 2138 −13*
FC Schalke 04:Edin Džeko 1468 −16 for Junior Chukwubuike Adamu 2138 −13* - 79'Adil Aouchiche 1995 −8* for Adrian Tobias Gantenbein 1810 −8*
FC Schalke 04:Adil Aouchiche 1995 −8* for Adrian Tobias Gantenbein 1810 −8* - 79'Timo Becker 1982 −9* for Maximilian Wöber 2008 −5
FC Schalke 04:Timo Becker 1982 −9* for Maximilian Wöber 2008 −5 - 79'Hwang Hee-Chan 1922 −10* for Moussa Sylla 1919 −8*
FC Schalke 04:Hwang Hee-Chan 1922 −10* for Moussa Sylla 1919 −8* - Lukas Kübler 2074 −12* for Philipp Treu 2289 +883'
SC Freiburg:Lukas Kübler 2074 −12* for Philipp Treu 2289 +8 - Vincenzo Grifo 2129 −12* for Derry Lionel Scherhant 2203 +1083'
SC Freiburg:Vincenzo Grifo 2129 −12* for Derry Lionel Scherhant 2203 +10 - Keisuke Goto 1995 +4* assist Vincenzo Grifo 2129 −12*85'
SC Freiburg:Keisuke Goto 1995 +4* assist Vincenzo Grifo 2129 −12* - 87'Hwang Hee-Chan 1922 −10*
FC Schalke 04:Hwang Hee-Chan 1922 −10*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 58% · 24% · 18%(SC Freiburg · draw · FC Schalke 04)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 2–1 had 10%.
- Average value of the starting XI: SC Freiburg €13.6M, FC Schalke 04 €3.2M.
- FC Schalke 04 were without 1 expected starter: D. Ljubičić (1951).
- All 11 of FC Schalke 04's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
- SC Freiburg were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
SC Freiburg
3rd in Bundesliga · 10 pts from 4
- 19 SepDEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga2245
- 12 SepWBorussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga2226
- 5 SepWSC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga2222
- 30 AugWWerder Bremen Bundesliga2195
- 27 AugWMotherwell UEFA Conference League2097
FC Schalke 04
12th in Bundesliga · 5 pts from 4
- 20 SepDSV Elversberg Bundesliga1948
- 11 SepWUnion Berlin Bundesliga1973
- 5 SepDBayern München Bundesliga1957
- 30 AugLFC Augsburg Bundesliga1973
- 24 AugDHallescher FC Germany DFB Pokal1969
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 10 /4 | 58.3 | 1% | 54% | 0% | 4th |
| FC Schalke 04 | 5 /4 | 39.0 | 0% | 1% | 17% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

SC Freiburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2255

FC Schalke 04 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 2016
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct · high-pressing
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
SC Freiburg: balanced profile (how Julian Schuster plays) · FC Schalke 04: balanced profile (how Miron Muslić plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.