Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg
SC Freiburg host Bayern München on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: SC Freiburg 17%, draw 23%, Bayern München 60%.
- Average value of the expected XI: SC Freiburg €14.2M, Bayern München €42.3M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Bundesliga matchday 7: 354 points.
- Bundesliga: D. Upamecano is the highest-rated defender (2642).
- Style contrast in chance creation (Bundesliga): SC Freiburg rank #18 of 18, Bayern München #1.
- Bayern München's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. SC Freiburg goals first.
- 1–111%
- 0–210%
- 1–210%
- 0–19%
- 0–37%
- 1–37%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–2expected 4.4 pts
Team Elo: SC Freiburg 2174 · Bayern München 2528
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
SC Freiburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2285
Bayern München · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.1 (Elite) · Elo 2532
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
SC Freiburg
3rd in Bundesliga · 13 pts from 6
- 18 OctLBayer Leverkusen Bundesliga2231
- 15 OctWFK Jablonec UEFA Conference League2099
- 11 OctWFC Schalke 04 Bundesliga2249
- 19 SepDEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga2245
- 12 SepWBorussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga2226
Bayern München
1st in Bundesliga · 14 pts from 6
- 17 OctWRB Leipzig Bundesliga2504
- 13 OctDViking UEFA Champions League2468
- 10 OctDFC Augsburg Bundesliga2548
- 18 SepWUnion Berlin Bundesliga2566
- 13 SepWSV Elversberg Bundesliga2465
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 13 /6 | 56.8 | <1% | 44% | 0% | 5th |
| Bayern München | 14 /6 | 80.4 | 93% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
SC Freiburg: balanced profile (how Julian Schuster plays) · Bayern München: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Vincent Kompany plays)