1. Lig · Regular Season - 12
Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Yusuf Ziya Onis, Istanbul
Sarıyer host Fatih Karagümrük on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (1. Lig); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sarıyer 37%, draw 29%, Fatih Karagümrük 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sarıyer €212K, Fatih Karagümrük €548K.
- Home advantage makes Sarıyer the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sarıyer goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Sarıyer 1606 · Fatih Karagümrük 1685
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sarıyer · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1767
Fatih Karagümrük · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 1808
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sarıyer
8th in 1. Lig · 16 pts from 11
- 17 OctDSivasspor Turkey 1 Lig1625
- 13 OctLBodrum FK Turkey 1 Lig1597
- 9 OctDÜmraniyespor Turkey 1 Lig1567
- 19 SepWBoluspor Turkey 1 Lig1661
- 11 SepDBandırmaspor Turkey 1 Lig1596
Fatih Karagümrük
12th in 1. Lig · 13 pts from 10
- 15 OctLMardin 1969 Turkey 1 Lig1622
- 11 OctDMuğlaspor Turkey 1 Lig1680
- 19 SepWEsenler Erokspor Turkey 1 Lig1646
- 13 SepDManisa F.K. Turkey 1 Lig1686
- 6 SepLBatman Petrolspor Turkey 1 Lig1724
Season outlook
From the 1. Lig simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarıyer | 16 /11 | 49.5 | 0% | 2% | 4% | 11th |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 13 /10 | 54.4 | <1% | 10% | 1% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sarıyer: balanced profile (how Bülent Bölükbaşı plays) · Fatih Karagümrük: balanced profile (how Aleksandar Stanojević plays)