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Serie A · Regular Season - 30

Sao Paulo 2–1 Vitoria

Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Morumbi, Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo crestSao PauloTeam 1806
2–1
Full time
HT 1–1
Vitoria crestVitoriaTeam 1846

Match story

Sao Paulo · draw · Vitoria

Before kick-off: 43% · 30% · 27%

Live chances: Sao Paulo 100%, draw 0%, Vitoria 0% at 90+8'1' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 43%, draw 30%, Vitoria 27%2' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 43%, draw 30%, Vitoria 27%3' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 43%, draw 30%, Vitoria 27%4' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 43%, draw 30%, Vitoria 27%5' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 43%, draw 30%, Vitoria 27%6' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 43%, draw 31%, Vitoria 27%7' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 43%, draw 31%, Vitoria 27%8' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 43%, draw 31%, Vitoria 27%9' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 42%, draw 31%, Vitoria 27%10' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 42%, draw 31%, Vitoria 27%11' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 42%, draw 31%, Vitoria 27%12' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 42%, draw 32%, Vitoria 26%13' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 42%, draw 32%, Vitoria 26%14' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 42%, draw 32%, Vitoria 26%15' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 41%, draw 32%, Vitoria 26%16' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 41%, draw 32%, Vitoria 26%17' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 41%, draw 33%, Vitoria 26%18' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 41%, draw 33%, Vitoria 26%19' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 41%, draw 33%, Vitoria 26%20' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 41%, draw 33%, Vitoria 26%21' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 41%, draw 33%, Vitoria 26%22' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 40%, draw 34%, Vitoria 26%23' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 72%, draw 19%, Vitoria 8%24' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 72%, draw 20%, Vitoria 8%25' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 72%, draw 20%, Vitoria 8%26' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 73%, draw 20%, Vitoria 8%27' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 73%, draw 20%, Vitoria 8%28' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 73%, draw 20%, Vitoria 8%29' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 73%, draw 20%, Vitoria 8%30' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 73%, draw 20%, Vitoria 8%31' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 73%, draw 20%, Vitoria 8%32' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 73%, draw 20%, Vitoria 7%33' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 73%, draw 20%, Vitoria 7%34' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 73%, draw 20%, Vitoria 7%35' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 73%, draw 20%, Vitoria 7%36' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 73%, draw 20%, Vitoria 7%37' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 73%, draw 20%, Vitoria 7%38' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 74%, draw 20%, Vitoria 7%39' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 74%, draw 20%, Vitoria 7%40' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 37%, draw 38%, Vitoria 25%41' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 36%, draw 39%, Vitoria 25%42' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 36%, draw 39%, Vitoria 25%43' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 36%, draw 39%, Vitoria 25%44' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 36%, draw 40%, Vitoria 25%45' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 35%, draw 40%, Vitoria 24%45+1' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 35%, draw 41%, Vitoria 24%45+2' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 35%, draw 41%, Vitoria 24%45+3' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 35%, draw 41%, Vitoria 24%45+4' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 34%, draw 42%, Vitoria 24%45+5' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 34%, draw 42%, Vitoria 24%HT · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 34%, draw 42%, Vitoria 24%46' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 34%, draw 42%, Vitoria 24%47' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 34%, draw 42%, Vitoria 24%48' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 34%, draw 42%, Vitoria 24%49' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 34%, draw 43%, Vitoria 24%50' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 33%, draw 43%, Vitoria 23%51' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 33%, draw 44%, Vitoria 23%52' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 32%, draw 45%, Vitoria 23%53' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 32%, draw 45%, Vitoria 23%54' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 32%, draw 46%, Vitoria 23%55' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 46%, Vitoria 22%56' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 47%, Vitoria 22%57' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 30%, draw 48%, Vitoria 22%58' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 30%, draw 49%, Vitoria 22%59' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 29%, draw 49%, Vitoria 21%60' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 29%, draw 50%, Vitoria 21%61' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 29%, draw 51%, Vitoria 21%62' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 28%, draw 51%, Vitoria 21%63' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 28%, draw 52%, Vitoria 20%64' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 27%, draw 53%, Vitoria 20%65' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 27%, draw 54%, Vitoria 20%66' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 26%, draw 54%, Vitoria 19%67' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 26%, draw 55%, Vitoria 19%68' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 25%, draw 56%, Vitoria 19%69' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 25%, draw 57%, Vitoria 18%70' · 1–1 · Sao Paulo 24%, draw 58%, Vitoria 18%71' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 82%, draw 16%, Vitoria 2%72' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 82%, draw 16%, Vitoria 2%73' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 83%, draw 15%, Vitoria 2%74' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 83%, draw 15%, Vitoria 2%75' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 83%, draw 15%, Vitoria 2%76' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 84%, draw 14%, Vitoria 2%77' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 84%, draw 14%, Vitoria 2%78' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 85%, draw 14%, Vitoria 1%79' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 85%, draw 13%, Vitoria 1%80' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 86%, draw 13%, Vitoria 1%81' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 87%, draw 12%, Vitoria 1%82' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 87%, draw 12%, Vitoria 1%83' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 88%, draw 11%, Vitoria 1%84' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 88%, draw 11%, Vitoria 1%85' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 89%, draw 10%, Vitoria 1%86' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 90%, draw 10%, Vitoria 1%87' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 90%, draw 9%, Vitoria 1%88' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 91%, draw 8%, Vitoria 0%89' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 92%, draw 8%, Vitoria 0%90' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 93%, draw 7%, Vitoria 0%90+1' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 94%, draw 6%, Vitoria 0%90+2' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 95%, draw 5%, Vitoria 0%90+3' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 96%, draw 4%, Vitoria 0%90+4' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 97%, draw 3%, Vitoria 0%90+5' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 98%, draw 2%, Vitoria 0%90+6' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 99%, draw 1%, Vitoria 0%90+7' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 100%, draw 0%, Vitoria 0%90+8' · 2–1 · Sao Paulo 100%, draw 0%, Vitoria 0%

Last reading, 90+8': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Sao Paulo 43% to win: they did.

  1. 16'Vitoria:Matheuzinho 1917 −6
  2. 16'Vitoria:Cacá 1962 −8
  3. 20'Sao Paulo:Jonathan Calleri 1886 +32 assist Iago Amaral Borduchi 1841 +14
  4. 24'Sao Paulo:Gustavo Santana 1702 +18
  5. 39'Vitoria:Emmanuel Martínez 1894 −17 assist Erick 1951 −22
  6. 44'Sao Paulo:Djhordney Ferreira 1691 +15
  7. 59'Sao Paulo:Lucas Moura 1885 −9* for Djhordney Ferreira 1691 +15
  8. 59'Sao Paulo:Marcos Antonio 1960 +4 for Lucas Ramon 1817 −1*
  9. 69'Vitoria:Tomás Pochettino 1790 −3 for Lucas Silva 1673 0
  10. 70'Sao Paulo:Jonathan Calleri 1886 +32
  11. 75'Sao Paulo:Pedro Ferreira 1538 +5 for Artur Victor Guimarães 1966 +21
  12. 75'Sao Paulo:Pedro Lima 1779 +3 for Gustavo Santana 1702 +18
  13. 77'Sao Paulo:Jose Monteiro 1958 +9
  14. 78'Sao Paulo:Iago Amaral Borduchi 1841 +14
  15. 78'Vitoria:Zé Vitor 1844 −8* for Caíque Gonçalves 1846 −5
  16. 78'Vitoria:Anderson Pato for Matheuzinho 1917 −6
  17. 79'Vitoria:Renato Kayzer 1825 −2 for Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira 1864 −3
  18. 84'Sao Paulo:Rafael Tolói 1805 −7 for Damian Bobadilla 2018 +19
  19. 86'Vitoria:Renato Kayzer 1825 −2
  20. 90'Vitoria:bruno alex 1285 −8* for Emmanuel Martínez 1894 −17

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-2-1Formations4-1-4-1
GRafael1869+1*
DNewton1964+9
DR. Arboleda1904+27
DSabino1958+9
MLucas Ramon1817−1*
MD. Bobadilla2018+19
MD. Ferreira1691+15
MIago1841+14
MArtur1966+21
MG. Santana1702+18
FJ. Calleri1886+32
CDorival Júnior1938+20
GLucas Arcanjo1975−8
DMateusinho1786−1
DCacá1962−8
DLuan Cândido1964−8
DJamerson1881−5
MMatheuzinho1917−6
MErick1951−22
MCaíque1846−5
ME. Martínez1894−17
MLucas Silva16730
FRene1864−3
CJair Ventura1904−9
Before kick-off: 43% · 30% · 27%(Sao Paulo · draw · Vitoria)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–1 had 9%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Sao Paulo €2.3M, Vitoria €1.9M.
  • Sao Paulo were without 1 expected starter: Luciano (1886).
  • Vitoria were without 1 expected starter: D. Tarzia (1867).
  • Style contrast in possession (Série A): Sao Paulo ranked #3 of 20, Vitoria #20.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Sao Paulo

11th in Série A · 36 pts from 29

  • 8 OctLCruzeiro 1903
  • 2 OctLSantos 1880
  • 20 SepWInternacional 1863
  • 16 SepDBoca Juniors 1891
  • 12 SepLPalmeiras 1859

Vitoria

12th in Série A · 36 pts from 29

  • 7 OctWChapecoense-SC 1893
  • 20 SepLCruzeiro 1905
  • 13 SepDMirassol 1892
  • 7 SepWGremio 1866
  • 3 SepLVasco Da Gama 1883

Season outlook

From the Serie A simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Sao Paulo36 /2948.50%0%1%10th
Vitoria36 /2947.40%0%3%12th
Sao Paulo
Vitoria

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie A

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Artur
Artur

Sao Paulo · +1.8 (Average) · Elo 1946

Lucas Arcanjo
Lucas Arcanjo

Vitoria · +5.4 (Good) · Elo 1983

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Dorival Silvestre Júnior

Coach DNA: possession-based

Ventura Jair

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Sao Paulo: possession-based (how Dorival Silvestre Júnior plays) · Vitoria: direct (how Ventura Jair plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.