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Serie A · Regular Season - 31

Sao Paulo 1–0 Vasco DA Gama

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Morumbi, Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo crestSao PauloTeam 1844
1–0
Full time
HT 0–0
Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA GamaTeam 2035

Match story

Sao Paulo · draw · Vasco DA Gama

Before kick-off: 32% · 31% · 37%

Live chances: Sao Paulo 100%, draw 0%, Vasco DA Gama 0% at 90+8'1' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 32%, draw 31%, Vasco DA Gama 37%2' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 32%, draw 31%, Vasco DA Gama 37%4' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 32%, draw 31%, Vasco DA Gama 37%5' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 32%, draw 31%, Vasco DA Gama 37%6' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 32%, draw 31%, Vasco DA Gama 37%8' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 32%, draw 32%, Vasco DA Gama 37%9' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 32%, draw 32%, Vasco DA Gama 37%10' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 32%, Vasco DA Gama 37%11' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 32%, Vasco DA Gama 37%12' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 32%, Vasco DA Gama 37%13' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 32%, Vasco DA Gama 36%14' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 32%, Vasco DA Gama 36%15' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 33%, Vasco DA Gama 36%16' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 33%, Vasco DA Gama 36%17' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 33%, Vasco DA Gama 36%18' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 33%, Vasco DA Gama 36%19' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 33%, Vasco DA Gama 36%20' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 33%, Vasco DA Gama 36%21' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 33%, Vasco DA Gama 36%22' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 34%, Vasco DA Gama 36%23' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 34%, Vasco DA Gama 35%24' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 34%, Vasco DA Gama 35%25' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 34%, Vasco DA Gama 35%26' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 31%, draw 34%, Vasco DA Gama 35%27' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 30%, draw 34%, Vasco DA Gama 35%28' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 30%, draw 35%, Vasco DA Gama 35%29' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 30%, draw 35%, Vasco DA Gama 35%30' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 30%, draw 35%, Vasco DA Gama 35%31' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 30%, draw 35%, Vasco DA Gama 35%32' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 30%, draw 36%, Vasco DA Gama 34%33' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 30%, draw 36%, Vasco DA Gama 34%34' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 30%, draw 36%, Vasco DA Gama 34%35' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 30%, draw 36%, Vasco DA Gama 34%36' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 30%, draw 36%, Vasco DA Gama 34%37' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 30%, draw 37%, Vasco DA Gama 34%38' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 29%, draw 37%, Vasco DA Gama 34%39' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 29%, draw 37%, Vasco DA Gama 33%40' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 29%, draw 38%, Vasco DA Gama 33%41' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 29%, draw 38%, Vasco DA Gama 33%42' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 29%, draw 38%, Vasco DA Gama 33%43' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 29%, draw 38%, Vasco DA Gama 33%44' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 29%, draw 39%, Vasco DA Gama 33%45' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 29%, draw 39%, Vasco DA Gama 32%45+1' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 28%, draw 39%, Vasco DA Gama 32%45+2' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 28%, draw 40%, Vasco DA Gama 32%45+3' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 28%, draw 40%, Vasco DA Gama 32%45+4' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 28%, draw 40%, Vasco DA Gama 32%HT · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 28%, draw 40%, Vasco DA Gama 32%47' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 28%, draw 41%, Vasco DA Gama 31%48' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 28%, draw 41%, Vasco DA Gama 31%49' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 28%, draw 42%, Vasco DA Gama 31%50' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 27%, draw 42%, Vasco DA Gama 31%51' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 27%, draw 43%, Vasco DA Gama 30%52' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 27%, draw 43%, Vasco DA Gama 30%53' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 40%, draw 42%, Vasco DA Gama 18%54' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 40%, draw 43%, Vasco DA Gama 18%55' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 39%, draw 43%, Vasco DA Gama 18%56' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 26%, draw 45%, Vasco DA Gama 29%57' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 26%, draw 46%, Vasco DA Gama 28%58' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 25%, draw 47%, Vasco DA Gama 28%59' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 25%, draw 47%, Vasco DA Gama 28%60' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 25%, draw 48%, Vasco DA Gama 27%61' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 24%, draw 49%, Vasco DA Gama 27%62' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 24%, draw 49%, Vasco DA Gama 27%63' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 24%, draw 50%, Vasco DA Gama 26%64' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 23%, draw 51%, Vasco DA Gama 26%65' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 23%, draw 51%, Vasco DA Gama 26%66' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 23%, draw 52%, Vasco DA Gama 25%67' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 22%, draw 53%, Vasco DA Gama 25%68' · 0–0 · Sao Paulo 22%, draw 54%, Vasco DA Gama 24%69' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 74%, draw 21%, Vasco DA Gama 5%70' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 75%, draw 21%, Vasco DA Gama 4%71' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 75%, draw 20%, Vasco DA Gama 4%72' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 76%, draw 20%, Vasco DA Gama 4%73' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 77%, draw 20%, Vasco DA Gama 4%74' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 77%, draw 19%, Vasco DA Gama 3%75' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 78%, draw 19%, Vasco DA Gama 3%76' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 78%, draw 19%, Vasco DA Gama 3%77' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 79%, draw 18%, Vasco DA Gama 3%78' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 80%, draw 18%, Vasco DA Gama 3%79' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 81%, draw 17%, Vasco DA Gama 2%80' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 81%, draw 16%, Vasco DA Gama 2%81' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 82%, draw 16%, Vasco DA Gama 2%82' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 83%, draw 15%, Vasco DA Gama 2%83' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 84%, draw 15%, Vasco DA Gama 2%84' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 85%, draw 14%, Vasco DA Gama 1%85' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 86%, draw 13%, Vasco DA Gama 1%86' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 86%, draw 12%, Vasco DA Gama 1%87' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 87%, draw 12%, Vasco DA Gama 1%88' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 88%, draw 11%, Vasco DA Gama 1%89' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 90%, draw 10%, Vasco DA Gama 1%90' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 91%, draw 9%, Vasco DA Gama 0%90+1' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 92%, draw 8%, Vasco DA Gama 0%90+2' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 93%, draw 6%, Vasco DA Gama 0%90+3' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 95%, draw 5%, Vasco DA Gama 0%90+4' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 96%, draw 4%, Vasco DA Gama 0%90+5' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 98%, draw 2%, Vasco DA Gama 0%90+6' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 99%, draw 1%, Vasco DA Gama 0%90+7' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 100%, draw 0%, Vasco DA Gama 0%90+8' · 1–0 · Sao Paulo 100%, draw 0%, Vasco DA Gama 0%

Last reading, 90+8': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Vasco DA Gama 37% to win: Sao Paulo won.

  1. 42'Sao Paulo:Artur Victor Guimarães 1991 +25
  2. 44'Vasco DA Gama:Facundo Colidio 2037 −9
  3. 45'Vasco DA Gama:Jose Luis Rodriguez 1983 −8 for Paulo Henrique 2059 −7
  4. 45'Sao Paulo:Lucas Moura 1886 +1 for Luciano 1887 +1
  5. 45'Sao Paulo:Jose Monteiro 1970 +12 for Rafael Tolói 1820 +15
  6. 54'Vasco DA Gama:Gabriel Pereira 1936 −2
  7. 62'Vasco DA Gama:Brenner 1963 −1 for Bruno Duarte Da Silva 1965 −5
  8. 68'Sao Paulo:Artur Victor Guimarães 1991 +25 assist Pedro Lima 1827 +48
  9. 71'Sao Paulo:Pablo Maia 1899 +6 for Marcos Antonio 1981 +21
  10. 74'Vasco DA Gama:Thiago Mendes 1988 −8 for Tchê Tchê 1785 −6
  11. 74'Vasco DA Gama:Jair 1812 −4 for Santiago Sosa 1989 −14
  12. 80'Sao Paulo:Gustavo Santana 1704 +3 for Jonathan Calleri 1893 +8
  13. 89'Sao Paulo:Luis Osorio Messias De Oliveira 1687 −7* for Artur Victor Guimarães 1991 +25
  14. 89'Vasco DA Gama:Adson 2018 0 for Alan Lescano 1990 −6
  15. 90+2'Sao Paulo:Iago Amaral Borduchi 1855 +14

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-2-1Formations4-2-3-1
GRafael1901+32
DR. Tolói1820+15
DR. Arboleda1930+27
DNewton1990+26
MPedro Lima1827+48
MD. Bobadilla2038+20
MMarcos Antônio1981+21
MIago1855+14
MArtur1991+25
MLuciano1887+1
FJ. Calleri1893+8
CDorival Júnior1959+20
GLéo Jardim2078−12
DPaulo Henrique2059−7
DGabriel Pereira1936−2
DRobert Renan2058−10
DCuiabano2066−31
MTchê Tchê1785−6
MS. Sosa1989−14
MA. Gómez2066−11
MA. Lescano1990−6
MF. Colidio2037−9
FBruno Duarte1965−5
CPedro Emanuel2038−17
Before kick-off: 32% · 31% · 37%(Sao Paulo · draw · Vasco DA Gama)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (15%); the result 1–0 had 10%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Sao Paulo €2.6M, Vasco DA Gama €4.2M.
  • Sao Paulo were without 1 expected starter: D. Ferreira (1691).
  • Home advantage made Sao Paulo the favourite: it added 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
  • Vasco DA Gama's expected eleven was in form: average +2.1 over 180 days.
  • Vasco DA Gama were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Sao Paulo

10th in Série A · 39 pts from 30

  • 11 OctWVitoria 1861
  • 8 OctLCruzeiro 1903
  • 2 OctLSantos 1880
  • 20 SepWInternacional 1863
  • 16 SepDBoca Juniors 1891

Vasco DA Gama

15th in Série A · 35 pts from 29

  • 14 OctWBoca Juniors 2010
  • 10 OctDRemo 1990
  • 7 OctWBotafogo 1992
  • 19 SepWCoritiba 1995
  • 15 SepWSanta Fe 1928

Season outlook

From the Serie A simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Sao Paulo39 /3049.80%0%<1%10th
Vasco DA Gama35 /2946.70%0%2%12th
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie A

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Artur
Artur

Sao Paulo · +2.2 (Average) · Elo 1966

A. Lescano
A. Lescano

Vasco DA Gama · +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 1996

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Dorival Silvestre Júnior

Coach DNA: possession-based

Pedro Emanuel dos Santos Martins Silva

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Sao Paulo: possession-based (how Dorival Silvestre Júnior plays) · Vasco DA Gama: balanced profile (how Pedro Emanuel dos Santos Martins Silva plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.