Serie A · Regular Season - 35
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense
Fri 20 Nov 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo host Fluminense on Fri 20 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sao Paulo 39%, draw 29%, Fluminense 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sao Paulo €2.4M, Fluminense €3.7M.
- Home advantage makes Sao Paulo the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- All 11 of Fluminense's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sao Paulo goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Sao Paulo 1868 · Fluminense 1979
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sao Paulo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Average) · Elo 1966
Fluminense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2034
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sao Paulo
10th in Série A · 44 pts from 34
- 5 NovDCorinthians Brazil Serie A1886
- 29 OctLBahia Brazil Serie A1919
- 24 OctDMirassol Brazil Serie A1883
- 18 OctWVasco Da Gama Brazil Serie A1902
- 11 OctWVitoria Brazil Serie A1859
Fluminense
4th in Série A · 54 pts from 33
- 28 OctWInternacional Brazil Serie A1956
- 24 OctLChapecoense-SC Brazil Serie A1949
- 22 OctWPalmeiras Copa Libertadores1928
- 18 OctLSantos Brazil Serie A1942
- 15 OctLPalmeiras Copa Libertadores1951
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 44 /34 | 49.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10th |
| Fluminense | 54 /33 | 61.3 | 0% | 62% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sao Paulo: possession-based (how Dorival Júnior plays) · Fluminense: possession-based (how Marcão plays)