Serie A · Regular Season - 34
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo host Corinthians on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sao Paulo 52%, draw 26%, Corinthians 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sao Paulo €2.8M, Corinthians €3.8M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sao Paulo goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Sao Paulo 1902 · Corinthians 1847
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sao Paulo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Average) · Elo 1991
Corinthians · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.2 (Good) · Elo 1926
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sao Paulo
9th in Série A · 42 pts from 31
- 18 OctWVasco Da Gama Brazil Serie A1905
- 11 OctWVitoria Brazil Serie A1861
- 8 OctLCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1903
- 2 OctLSantos Brazil Serie A1880
- 20 SepWInternacional Brazil Serie A1863
Corinthians
16th in Série A · 33 pts from 31
- 19 OctDVitoria Brazil Serie A1842
- 11 OctLPalmeiras Brazil Serie A1862
- 7 OctLInternacional Brazil Serie A1931
- 20 SepLFluminense Brazil Serie A1916
- 17 SepLEstudiantes L.P. Copa Libertadores1916
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 42 /31 | 51.8 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 9th |
| Corinthians | 33 /31 | 41.6 | 0% | 0% | 24% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sao Paulo: possession-based (how Dorival Júnior plays) · Corinthians: balanced profile (how Clarence Seedorf plays)