Serie B · Regular Season - 35
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Estadio Primeiro de Maio, Sao Bernardo
São Bernardo host Vila Nova on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: São Bernardo 43%, draw 28%, Vila Nova 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: São Bernardo €375K, Vila Nova €473K.
- Home advantage makes São Bernardo the favourite here: it adds 11 points to their win chance.
- All 11 of São Bernardo's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Vila Nova are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. São Bernardo goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: São Bernardo 1662 · Vila Nova 1707
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
São Bernardo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.6 (Elite) · Elo 1754
Vila Nova · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1689
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
São Bernardo
12th in Serie B · 46 pts from 34
- 18 OctLCriciuma Brazil Serie B1612
- 11 OctDJuventude Brazil Serie B1673
- 6 OctLSport Recife Brazil Serie B1676
- 2 OctWCRB Brazil Serie B1674
- 25 SepDNovorizontino Brazil Serie B1686
Vila Nova
1st in Serie B · 62 pts from 34
- 18 OctDNovorizontino Brazil Serie B1721
- 11 OctWNautico Recife Brazil Serie B1697
- 7 OctDCuiaba Brazil Serie B1721
- 3 OctWBotafogo SP Brazil Serie B1710
- 25 SepWLondrina Brazil Serie B1712
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Bernardo | 46 /34 | 51.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12th |
| Vila Nova | 62 /34 | 67.3 | 23% | 86% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
São Bernardo: balanced profile (how Vinícius Bergantin plays) · Vila Nova: balanced profile (how Augusto Sérgio Ferreira plays)