Serie B · Regular Season - 38
São Bernardo vs Athletic Club
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Estadio Primeiro de Maio, Sao Bernardo
São Bernardo host Athletic Club on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: São Bernardo 47%, draw 27%, Athletic Club 25%.
- Average value of the expected XI: São Bernardo €377K, Athletic Club €395K.
- All 11 of São Bernardo's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. São Bernardo goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: São Bernardo 1672 · Athletic Club 1657
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
São Bernardo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.6 (Elite) · Elo 1783
Athletic Club · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 1720
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
São Bernardo
11th in Serie B · 49 pts from 35
- 24 OctWVila Nova Brazil Serie B1679
- 18 OctLCriciuma Brazil Serie B1612
- 11 OctDJuventude Brazil Serie B1673
- 6 OctLSport Recife Brazil Serie B1676
- 2 OctWCRB Brazil Serie B1674
Athletic Club
14th in Serie B · 44 pts from 35
- 23 OctLOperario-PR Brazil Serie B1634
- 18 OctDAvai Brazil Serie B1654
- 13 OctDLondrina Brazil Serie B1684
- 6 OctLGoias Brazil Serie B1694
- 1 OctLSport Recife Brazil Serie B1655
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Bernardo | 49 /35 | 53.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11th |
| Athletic Club | 44 /35 | 48.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
São Bernardo: balanced profile (how Vinícius Bergantin plays) · Athletic Club: balanced profile (how Alex plays)