Serie A · Regular Season - 33
Santos vs Palmeiras
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos
Santos host Palmeiras on Wed 28 Oct 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Santos 32%, draw 29%, Palmeiras 39%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Santos €2.8M, Palmeiras €8.6M.
- Palmeiras' expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.2 over 180 days.
- Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Santos goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Santos 1961 · Palmeiras 2164
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Santos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2022
Palmeiras · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.6 (Good) · Elo 2211
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Santos
8th in Série A · 45 pts from 31
- 18 OctWFluminense Brazil Serie A1943
- 11 OctLAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1972
- 8 OctDFlamengo Brazil Serie A1962
- 2 OctWSao Paulo Brazil Serie A1970
- 19 SepWRemo Brazil Serie A1926
Palmeiras
2nd in Série A · 66 pts from 31
- 17 OctWAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A2160
- 15 OctWFluminense Copa Libertadores2155
- 11 OctWCorinthians Brazil Serie A2153
- 9 OctWBahia Brazil Serie A2128
- 20 SepDGremio Brazil Serie A2152
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 45 /31 | 55.6 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 8th |
| Palmeiras | 66 /31 | 79.7 | 30% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Santos: balanced profile (how Alexi Stival plays) · Palmeiras: shot-heavy (how Abel Fernando Moreira Ferreira plays)