Serie A · Regular Season - 36
Santos vs Gremio
Tue 24 Nov 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos
Santos host Gremio on Tue 24 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Santos 51%, draw 27%, Gremio 23%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Santos €2.7M, Gremio €1.9M.
- Santos' expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Santos goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–012%
- 2–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores41%
Team Elo: Santos 1942 · Gremio 1908
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Santos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1988
Gremio · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1894
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Santos
9th in Série A · 47 pts from 34
- 2 NovLRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A1936
- 28 OctDPalmeiras Brazil Serie A1938
- 25 OctDBahia Brazil Serie A1933
- 18 OctWFluminense Brazil Serie A1938
- 11 OctLAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1967
Gremio
18th in Série A · 37 pts from 34
- 7 NovDAtletico-MG Brazil Copa do Brasil1928
- 4 NovLFlamengo Brazil Serie A1804
- 1 NovWAtletico-MG Brazil Copa do Brasil1940
- 30 OctWAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A1912
- 26 OctWCoritiba Brazil Serie A1898
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 47 /34 | 53.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8th |
| Gremio | 37 /34 | 42.7 | 0% | 0% | 23% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Santos: balanced profile (how Alexi Stival plays) · Gremio: dribble-heavy (how Renato Portaluppi plays)