Serie A · Regular Season - 29
Santos 2–2 Flamengo
Thu 8 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos
SantosTeam 1971FlamengoTeam 2211We gave Flamengo 42% to win: it ended in a draw.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 29% · 29% · 42%(Santos · draw · Flamengo)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–2 had 5%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Santos €2.1M, Flamengo €8.4M.
- Santos were without 2 expected starters: Gabriel Brazão (2022) and Arthur (1964).
- Flamengo were without 4 expected starters: Léo Ortiz (2321), Ayrton Lucas (2276), G. Varela (2155) and G. de Arrascaeta (2260).
- Largest team-Elo gap of Série A matchday 29: 298 points.
- Série A: A. Rossi was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2350).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Santos
8th in Série A · 41 pts from 28
- 2 OctWSao Paulo Brazil Serie A1970
- 19 SepWRemo Brazil Serie A1926
- 16 SepLAtletico-MG Copa Sudamericana1952
- 13 SepWCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1930
- 9 SepWAtletico-MG Copa Sudamericana1904
Flamengo
1st in Série A · 60 pts from 28
- 20 SepWRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2236
- 18 SepDIndependiente del Valle Copa Libertadores2242
- 13 SepWCorinthians Brazil Serie A2251
- 11 SepWIndependiente del Valle Copa Libertadores2222
- 6 SepWRemo Brazil Serie A2256
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 41 /28 | 54.4 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 8th |
| Flamengo | 60 /28 | 80.4 | 77% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Santos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2031
Flamengo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.2 (Good) · Elo 2332
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Santos: balanced profile (how Alexi Stival plays) · Flamengo: possession-based (how José Leonardo Nunes Alves Sousa Jardim plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.