UEFA Nations League · League C - 5
San Marino vs Belarus
Thu 12 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · San Marino Stadium, Serravalle
San Marino host Belarus on Thu 12 Nov 2026 (UEFA Nations League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: San Marino 2%, draw 6%, Belarus 92%.
- Average value of the expected XI: San Marino €129K, Belarus €870K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of UEFA Nations League C, matchday 5: 999 points.
- Draw chance 6%, below the UEFA Nations League average of 24% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. San Marino goals first.
- 0–315%
- 0–213%
- 0–413%
- 0–59%
- 0–18%
- 1–36%
- Other scores36%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl0–3expected 6.6 pts
Team Elo: San Marino 684 · Belarus 1683
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each team's last 4 UEFA Nations League matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
San Marino · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 546
Belarus · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1650
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile