Major League Soccer · Round of 16
San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo
Wed 25 Nov 2026 · 03:00 UTC · PayPal Park
San Jose Earthquakes host Houston Dynamo on Wed 25 Nov 2026 (Major League Soccer); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: San Jose Earthquakes 47%, draw 28%, Houston Dynamo 25%.
- Average value of the expected XI: San Jose Earthquakes €2.6M, Houston Dynamo €2.1M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. San Jose Earthquakes goals first.
- 1–113%
- 2–19%
- 1–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores48%
Team Elo: San Jose Earthquakes 1957 · Houston Dynamo 1928
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
San Jose Earthquakes · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Average) · Elo 1942
Houston Dynamo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 1981
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
San Jose Earthquakes
4th in MLS · 52 pts from 34
- 8 NovLMinnesota United FC MLS2038
- 31 OctWReal Salt Lake MLS1931
- 29 OctDColorado Rapids MLS1992
- 25 OctLFC Dallas MLS2006
- 18 OctDNashville SC MLS2003
Houston Dynamo
5th in MLS · 51 pts from 34
- 8 NovLSt. Louis City MLS1988
- 2 NovLPortland Timbers MLS1980
- 29 OctWSeattle Sounders MLS1957
- 25 OctDMinnesota United FC MLS1959
- 18 OctDFC Dallas MLS1967
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 52 /34 | 54.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9th |
| Houston Dynamo | 51 /34 | 53.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
San Jose Earthquakes: balanced profile (how Bruce Arena plays) · Houston Dynamo: balanced profile (how B. Olsen plays)