Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 31
San Diego vs Seattle Sounders
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 02:30 UTC · Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego
San Diego host Seattle Sounders on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Major League Soccer); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: San Diego 43%, draw 28%, Seattle Sounders 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: San Diego €2.2M, Seattle Sounders €2.1M.
- Home advantage makes San Diego the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. San Diego goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: San Diego 1898 · Seattle Sounders 1922
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
San Diego · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 1974
Seattle Sounders · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 2031
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
San Diego
12th in MLS · 34 pts from 30
- 18 OctDLos Angeles Galaxy MLS1849
- 15 OctDHouston Dynamo MLS1900
- 10 OctLNew York Red Bulls MLS1904
- 27 SepDAustin MLS1893
- 14 SepLPhiladelphia Union MLS1890
Seattle Sounders
7th in MLS · 42 pts from 30
- 18 OctDCF Montreal MLS1925
- 15 OctLFC Dallas MLS1913
- 10 OctWNew England Revolution MLS1927
- 2 OctWSporting Kansas City MLS1907
- 27 SepWMinnesota United FC MLS1889
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | 34 /30 | 39.4 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 21st |
| Seattle Sounders | 42 /30 | 47.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
San Diego: possession-based (how Michael Anthony Varas plays) · Seattle Sounders: balanced profile (how Brian Thomas Schmetzer plays)