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Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 29

San Diego 3–3 Houston Dynamo

Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 02:30 UTC · Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego

San Diego crestSan DiegoTeam 1896
3–3
Full time
HT 2–3
Houston Dynamo crestHouston DynamoTeam 1971

Match story

San Diego · draw · Houston Dynamo

Before kick-off: 39% · 28% · 33%

Live chances: San Diego 1%, draw 99%, Houston Dynamo 1% at 90+6'1' · 0–0 · San Diego 39%, draw 28%, Houston Dynamo 33%2' · 0–0 · San Diego 39%, draw 28%, Houston Dynamo 33%3' · 0–0 · San Diego 39%, draw 28%, Houston Dynamo 33%4' · 0–0 · San Diego 39%, draw 29%, Houston Dynamo 33%5' · 0–0 · San Diego 39%, draw 29%, Houston Dynamo 33%6' · 0–0 · San Diego 39%, draw 29%, Houston Dynamo 33%7' · 0–0 · San Diego 39%, draw 29%, Houston Dynamo 32%8' · 0–0 · San Diego 38%, draw 29%, Houston Dynamo 32%9' · 0–0 · San Diego 38%, draw 29%, Houston Dynamo 32%10' · 0–0 · San Diego 38%, draw 29%, Houston Dynamo 32%11' · 0–0 · San Diego 38%, draw 30%, Houston Dynamo 32%12' · 0–0 · San Diego 38%, draw 30%, Houston Dynamo 32%13' · 0–0 · San Diego 38%, draw 30%, Houston Dynamo 32%14' · 0–0 · San Diego 38%, draw 30%, Houston Dynamo 32%15' · 0–0 · San Diego 38%, draw 30%, Houston Dynamo 32%16' · 0–0 · San Diego 38%, draw 30%, Houston Dynamo 32%17' · 0–0 · San Diego 37%, draw 31%, Houston Dynamo 32%18' · 0–0 · San Diego 37%, draw 31%, Houston Dynamo 32%19' · 0–0 · San Diego 37%, draw 31%, Houston Dynamo 32%20' · 1–0 · San Diego 67%, draw 21%, Houston Dynamo 12%21' · 1–0 · San Diego 68%, draw 21%, Houston Dynamo 12%22' · 2–0 · San Diego 90%, draw 7%, Houston Dynamo 2%23' · 2–0 · San Diego 90%, draw 7%, Houston Dynamo 2%24' · 2–1 · San Diego 68%, draw 21%, Houston Dynamo 11%25' · 2–1 · San Diego 68%, draw 21%, Houston Dynamo 11%26' · 2–1 · San Diego 68%, draw 21%, Houston Dynamo 11%27' · 2–1 · San Diego 68%, draw 21%, Houston Dynamo 11%28' · 2–1 · San Diego 68%, draw 21%, Houston Dynamo 11%29' · 2–1 · San Diego 68%, draw 21%, Houston Dynamo 11%30' · 2–1 · San Diego 68%, draw 21%, Houston Dynamo 11%31' · 2–1 · San Diego 68%, draw 21%, Houston Dynamo 10%32' · 2–1 · San Diego 69%, draw 21%, Houston Dynamo 10%33' · 2–2 · San Diego 35%, draw 34%, Houston Dynamo 31%34' · 2–2 · San Diego 35%, draw 34%, Houston Dynamo 30%35' · 2–2 · San Diego 35%, draw 35%, Houston Dynamo 30%36' · 2–2 · San Diego 35%, draw 35%, Houston Dynamo 30%37' · 2–3 · San Diego 15%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 60%38' · 2–3 · San Diego 15%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 60%39' · 2–3 · San Diego 15%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 60%40' · 2–3 · San Diego 15%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 60%41' · 2–3 · San Diego 14%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 61%42' · 2–3 · San Diego 14%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 61%43' · 2–3 · San Diego 14%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 61%44' · 2–3 · San Diego 14%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 61%45' · 2–3 · San Diego 13%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 61%45+1' · 2–3 · San Diego 13%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 62%45+2' · 2–3 · San Diego 13%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 62%45+3' · 2–3 · San Diego 13%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 62%45+4' · 2–3 · San Diego 12%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 62%45+5' · 2–3 · San Diego 12%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 62%45+6' · 2–3 · San Diego 12%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 62%45+7' · 2–3 · San Diego 12%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 62%45+8' · 2–3 · San Diego 12%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 62%45+9' · 2–3 · San Diego 12%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 62%HT · 2–3 · San Diego 12%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 62%47' · 2–3 · San Diego 12%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 63%48' · 2–3 · San Diego 12%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 63%49' · 2–3 · San Diego 12%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 63%50' · 2–3 · San Diego 11%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 64%51' · 2–3 · San Diego 11%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 64%52' · 2–3 · San Diego 11%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 64%53' · 2–3 · San Diego 10%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 65%54' · 2–3 · San Diego 10%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 65%55' · 2–3 · San Diego 10%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 66%56' · 2–3 · San Diego 9%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 66%57' · 2–3 · San Diego 9%, draw 24%, Houston Dynamo 67%58' · 2–3 · San Diego 9%, draw 24%, Houston Dynamo 67%59' · 2–3 · San Diego 8%, draw 24%, Houston Dynamo 67%60' · 2–3 · San Diego 8%, draw 24%, Houston Dynamo 68%61' · 2–3 · San Diego 8%, draw 24%, Houston Dynamo 68%62' · 2–3 · San Diego 8%, draw 24%, Houston Dynamo 69%63' · 2–3 · San Diego 7%, draw 24%, Houston Dynamo 69%64' · 2–3 · San Diego 7%, draw 23%, Houston Dynamo 70%65' · 2–3 · San Diego 7%, draw 23%, Houston Dynamo 70%67' · 2–3 · San Diego 6%, draw 23%, Houston Dynamo 71%68' · 2–3 · San Diego 6%, draw 22%, Houston Dynamo 72%69' · 2–3 · San Diego 6%, draw 22%, Houston Dynamo 72%71' · 2–3 · San Diego 5%, draw 22%, Houston Dynamo 73%72' · 2–3 · San Diego 5%, draw 21%, Houston Dynamo 74%73' · 2–3 · San Diego 4%, draw 21%, Houston Dynamo 75%75' · 2–3 · San Diego 4%, draw 20%, Houston Dynamo 76%76' · 2–3 · San Diego 4%, draw 20%, Houston Dynamo 77%77' · 2–3 · San Diego 3%, draw 19%, Houston Dynamo 77%79' · 2–3 · San Diego 3%, draw 18%, Houston Dynamo 79%80' · 2–3 · San Diego 3%, draw 18%, Houston Dynamo 80%81' · 2–3 · San Diego 2%, draw 17%, Houston Dynamo 81%82' · 2–3 · San Diego 2%, draw 16%, Houston Dynamo 82%83' · 2–3 · San Diego 2%, draw 16%, Houston Dynamo 82%85' · 2–3 · San Diego 1%, draw 14%, Houston Dynamo 84%86' · 2–3 · San Diego 1%, draw 13%, Houston Dynamo 85%87' · 3–3 · San Diego 12%, draw 77%, Houston Dynamo 11%89' · 3–3 · San Diego 10%, draw 81%, Houston Dynamo 9%90' · 3–3 · San Diego 9%, draw 83%, Houston Dynamo 8%90+1' · 3–3 · San Diego 8%, draw 85%, Houston Dynamo 7%90+2' · 3–3 · San Diego 6%, draw 88%, Houston Dynamo 6%90+3' · 3–3 · San Diego 5%, draw 90%, Houston Dynamo 5%90+4' · 3–3 · San Diego 4%, draw 93%, Houston Dynamo 3%90+5' · 3–3 · San Diego 2%, draw 96%, Houston Dynamo 2%90+6' · 3–3 · San Diego 1%, draw 99%, Houston Dynamo 1%

Last reading, 90+6': 1% · 99% · 1%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave San Diego 39% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 4'Houston Dynamo:Lawrence Ennali 2038 +2
  2. 19'Houston Dynamo:Jonathan Bond 2042 0
  3. 20'San Diego:Anders Dreyer 1967 −3 (pen.)
  4. 22'San Diego:Cédric Bakambu 1847 −7 assist Onni Valakari 2027 −2
  5. 24'Houston Dynamo:Guilherme Augusto 2037 +1 assist Lawrence Ennali 2038 +2
  6. 33'Houston Dynamo:Mateusz Bogusz 2113 +1 assist Guilherme Augusto 2037 +1
  7. 37'Houston Dynamo:Guilherme Augusto 2037 +1
  8. 44'Houston Dynamo:Guilherme Augusto 2037 +1
  9. 45'Houston Dynamo:Duncan McGuire 1827 +2 for Lyle Foster 1971 +1
  10. 53'San Diego:kieran sargeant 1653 0
  11. 58'San Diego:David Mimbang for Alejandro Alvarado Jr 1637 0
  12. 58'San Diego:Gabriel Pirani 1780 0 for Onni Valakari 2027 −2
  13. 58'San Diego:Marcus Ingvartsen 1935 −3 for Cédric Bakambu 1847 −7
  14. 76'San Diego:Aníbal Godoy 1822 −10 for kieran sargeant 1653 0
  15. 76'San Diego:Amahl Pellegrino 1716 −8 for Elias Achouri 1924 −1
  16. 77'San Diego:Anders Dreyer 1967 −3
  17. 77'Houston Dynamo:Ibrahim Aliyu 1946 −7* for Guilherme Augusto 2037 +1
  18. 78'Houston Dynamo:Agustin Resch 1995 −7* for Agustín Bouzat 1846 −1
  19. 79'San Diego:Aníbal Godoy 1822 −10
  20. 86'San Diego:Gabriel Pirani 1780 0
  21. 88'Houston Dynamo:Duane Holmes 1612 −4 for Mateusz Bogusz 2113 +1
  22. 90+3'Houston Dynamo:Marcelo Saracchi 1953 −8* for Lawrence Ennali 2038 +2

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-3-3Formations4-2-3-1
GC. dos Santos2035−1
DD. Þór­halls­son1892−8*
DC. McVey2050−3
DM. Duah1976−1
DKieran Sargeant16530
MA. Alvarado16370
MJ. Tverskov1935−7
MO. Valakari2027−2
FA. Dreyer1967−3
FC. Bakambu1847−7
FE. Achouri1924−1
CMikey Varas1959−1
GJ. Bond20420
DL. Ennali2038+2
DAntônio Carlos1948+2
DLucas Halter2007+2
DF. Negri19070
MArtur19690
MH. Herrera1807−13*
MM. Bogusz2113+1
MA. Bouzat1846−1
MGuilherme2037+1
FL. Foster1971+1
CBen Olsen2042+4
Before kick-off: 39% · 28% · 33%(San Diego · draw · Houston Dynamo)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 3–3 had 1%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: San Diego €2.8M, Houston Dynamo €2.0M.
  • Houston Dynamo were without 1 expected starter: Felipe Andrade (2023).
  • Home advantage made San Diego the favourite: it added 9 points to their win chance.
  • All 11 of Houston Dynamo's expected starters were past their position's peak age.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

San Diego

12th in MLS · 32 pts from 28

  • 10 OctLNew York Red Bulls 1904
  • 27 SepDAustin 1893
  • 14 SepLPhiladelphia Union 1890
  • 10 SepLSan Jose Earthquakes 1971
  • 5 SepLOrlando City SC 1913

Houston Dynamo

5th in MLS · 45 pts from 28

  • 11 OctDMinnesota United FC 1990
  • 27 SepLSporting Kansas City 1990
  • 20 SepDFC Cincinnati 2005
  • 13 SepLSan Jose Earthquakes 2011
  • 10 SepWReal Salt Lake 1989

Season outlook

From the Major League Soccer simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
San Diego32 /2840.10%0%2%21st
Houston Dynamo45 /2853.30%5%0%10th
San Diego
Houston Dynamo

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Major League Soccer

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

A. Dreyer
A. Dreyer

San Diego · +5.0 (Good) · Elo 1969

Guilherme
Guilherme

Houston Dynamo · +4.5 (Good) · Elo 2036

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Michael Anthony Varas

Coach DNA: possession-based

Benjamin Robert Olsen

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

San Diego: possession-based (how Michael Anthony Varas plays) · Houston Dynamo: possession-based (how Benjamin Robert Olsen plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.