League Two · Regular Season - 11
Salford City 2–1 Crawley Town
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Moor Lane, Salford
Salford CityTeam 1814Crawley TownTeam 1539- Macaulay Langstaff 17', 50'
- Dylan Morgan 59'
We gave Salford City 64% to win: they did.
- Macaulay Langstaff – assist Kallum Cesay –17'Salford City:Macaulay Langstaff – assist Kallum Cesay –
- Macaulay Langstaff – assist Kallum Cesay –50'Salford City:Macaulay Langstaff – assist Kallum Cesay –
- 59'Dylan MorganCrawley Town:Dylan Morgan
- 61'Pele Arganese-McDermott – for Priestley Farquharson –Crawley Town:Pele Arganese-McDermott – for Priestley Farquharson –
- 61'Kellan Gordon – for Lewis Richards –Crawley Town:Kellan Gordon – for Lewis Richards –
- 61'Osman kamara – for Gianmarco biase di –Crawley Town:Osman kamara – for Gianmarco biase di –
- Luke Garbutt – for Abraham Odoh –66'Salford City:Luke Garbutt – for Abraham Odoh –
- Brendan Sarpeng-Wiredu – for Matt·Butcher –66'Salford City:Brendan Sarpeng-Wiredu – for Matt·Butcher –
- 76'Jonathan Russell – for Stephen·Duke-Mckenna –Crawley Town:Jonathan Russell – for Stephen·Duke-Mckenna –
- 76'Louie Watson – for Kai Jennings –Crawley Town:Louie Watson – for Kai Jennings –
- Ryan Graydon – for Kallum Cesay –78'Salford City:Ryan Graydon – for Kallum Cesay –
- Daniel Udoh – for Jorge Grant –84'Salford City:Daniel Udoh – for Jorge Grant –
- Nathan Asiimwe – for Luke Molyneux –84'Salford City:Nathan Asiimwe – for Luke Molyneux –
Before kick-off (provisional): 64% · 22% · 15%(Salford City · draw · Crawley Town)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 2–1 had 10%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Salford City €561K, Crawley Town €192K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of League Two matchday 11: 275 points.
- Draw chance was 22%, below the League Two average of 28% this round.
- League Two: T. Allen was the highest-rated defender (1944).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Salford City
1st in League Two · 19 pts from 10
- 10 OctWCheltenham England League Two1804
- 6 OctDAccrington ST England EFL Trophy1692
- 3 OctWFleetwood Town England League Two1802
- 26 SepWOldham England League Two1782
- 22 SepLSheffield Wednesday England EFL Trophy1705
Crawley Town
24th in League Two · 5 pts from 8
- 10 OctDChesterfield England League Two1566
- 6 OctWBromley England EFL Trophy1650
- 22 SepLMilton Keynes Dons England EFL Trophy1384
- 19 SepLGrimsby England League Two1526
- 12 SepLCheltenham England League Two1593
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford City | 19 /10 | 84.5 | 60% | 93% | 0% | 1st |
| Crawley Town | 5 /8 | 47.6 | 0% | <1% | 55% | 24th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Salford City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.0 (Good) · Elo 1777
Crawley Town · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Average) · Elo 1622
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Salford City: dribble-heavy (how Peter Cklamovski plays) · Crawley Town: possession-based · dribble-heavy (how Colin Kazim-Richards plays)