HNL · Regular Season - 14
Rudes vs NK Varazdin
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · SC Rudes, Zagreb
Rudes host NK Varazdin on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (HNL); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Rudes 34%, draw 29%, NK Varazdin 37%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Rudes €226K, NK Varazdin €455K.
- Draw chance 29%, above the HNL average of 23% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Rudes goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 1–08%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
- 0–08%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Rudes 1552 · NK Varazdin 1642
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Rudes · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Good) · Elo 1558
NK Varazdin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1627
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Rudes
8th in HNL · 16 pts from 13
- 6 NovWNK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL1553
- 31 OctWDinamo Zagreb HNL1490
- 25 OctWNK Osijek HNL1472
- 16 OctLHNK Rijeka HNL1488
- 9 OctWHNK Gorica HNL1447
NK Varazdin
5th in HNL · 19 pts from 13
- 8 NovLDinamo Zagreb HNL1655
- 1 NovDHNK Rijeka HNL1664
- 24 OctLNK Slaven Belupo HNL1707
- 18 OctLHNK Hajduk Split HNL1701
- 11 OctWNK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL1652
Season outlook
From the HNL simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudes | 16 /13 | 42.4 | 0% | 7% | 38% | 7th |
| NK Varazdin | 19 /13 | 50.2 | 0% | 46% | 5% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Rudes: low-block · direct (how Alen Peternac plays) · NK Varazdin: balanced profile (how Nikola Šafarić plays)