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HNL · Regular Season - 10

Rudes 1–2 HNK Rijeka

Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadion Radnik, Veliky Gorica

Rudes crestRudesTeam 1454
1–2
Full time
HT 0–1
HNK Rijeka crestHNK RijekaTeam 1811

Match story

Rudes · draw · HNK Rijeka

Before kick-off: 18% · 23% · 59%

Live chances: Rudes 0%, draw 1%, HNK Rijeka 99% at 90+5'1' · 0–0 · Rudes 18%, draw 23%, HNK Rijeka 59%2' · 0–0 · Rudes 18%, draw 24%, HNK Rijeka 59%3' · 0–0 · Rudes 18%, draw 24%, HNK Rijeka 59%4' · 0–0 · Rudes 18%, draw 24%, HNK Rijeka 58%5' · 0–1 · Rudes 8%, draw 15%, HNK Rijeka 77%6' · 0–1 · Rudes 8%, draw 15%, HNK Rijeka 77%7' · 0–1 · Rudes 8%, draw 15%, HNK Rijeka 77%8' · 0–1 · Rudes 8%, draw 15%, HNK Rijeka 77%9' · 0–1 · Rudes 8%, draw 15%, HNK Rijeka 77%10' · 0–1 · Rudes 8%, draw 15%, HNK Rijeka 77%11' · 0–1 · Rudes 8%, draw 15%, HNK Rijeka 77%13' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 15%, HNK Rijeka 77%14' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 15%, HNK Rijeka 77%15' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%16' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%17' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%18' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%19' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%20' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%21' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%22' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%23' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%24' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%25' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%26' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%27' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%28' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%30' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%31' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%32' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%33' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 77%34' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 77%35' · 0–1 · Rudes 7%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 77%36' · 0–1 · Rudes 6%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 77%37' · 0–1 · Rudes 6%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 77%38' · 0–1 · Rudes 6%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 77%39' · 0–1 · Rudes 6%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 77%40' · 0–1 · Rudes 6%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 77%41' · 0–1 · Rudes 6%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 77%42' · 0–1 · Rudes 6%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 77%43' · 0–1 · Rudes 6%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 77%44' · 0–1 · Rudes 6%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 77%45' · 0–1 · Rudes 6%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 77%45+1' · 0–1 · Rudes 6%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 77%HT · 0–1 · Rudes 6%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 77%47' · 0–1 · Rudes 5%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 77%48' · 0–1 · Rudes 5%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 78%49' · 0–1 · Rudes 5%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 78%50' · 0–1 · Rudes 5%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 78%51' · 0–1 · Rudes 5%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 78%52' · 0–1 · Rudes 5%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 78%53' · 0–1 · Rudes 5%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 78%54' · 0–1 · Rudes 5%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 78%55' · 0–1 · Rudes 5%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 78%56' · 0–1 · Rudes 4%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 79%57' · 0–1 · Rudes 4%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 79%58' · 0–1 · Rudes 4%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 79%59' · 0–1 · Rudes 4%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 79%60' · 0–1 · Rudes 4%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 79%61' · 0–1 · Rudes 4%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 79%62' · 0–1 · Rudes 4%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 80%63' · 0–1 · Rudes 4%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 80%64' · 0–1 · Rudes 3%, draw 17%, HNK Rijeka 80%65' · 0–1 · Rudes 3%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 80%66' · 0–1 · Rudes 3%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 81%67' · 0–1 · Rudes 3%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 81%69' · 0–1 · Rudes 3%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 81%70' · 0–1 · Rudes 3%, draw 16%, HNK Rijeka 82%71' · 0–1 · Rudes 3%, draw 15%, HNK Rijeka 82%72' · 0–1 · Rudes 1%, draw 10%, HNK Rijeka 89%73' · 0–1 · Rudes 1%, draw 10%, HNK Rijeka 89%74' · 0–1 · Rudes 1%, draw 10%, HNK Rijeka 90%75' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 1%, HNK Rijeka 99%76' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 1%, HNK Rijeka 99%77' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 1%, HNK Rijeka 99%78' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 1%, HNK Rijeka 99%80' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 0%, HNK Rijeka 100%81' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 0%, HNK Rijeka 100%82' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 0%, HNK Rijeka 100%83' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 0%, HNK Rijeka 100%84' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 0%, HNK Rijeka 100%85' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 0%, HNK Rijeka 100%86' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 0%, HNK Rijeka 100%87' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 0%, HNK Rijeka 100%88' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 0%, HNK Rijeka 100%89' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 0%, HNK Rijeka 100%90' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 0%, HNK Rijeka 100%90+1' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 0%, HNK Rijeka 100%90+2' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 0%, HNK Rijeka 100%90+3' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 0%, HNK Rijeka 100%90+4' · 0–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 0%, HNK Rijeka 100%90+5' · 1–2 · Rudes 0%, draw 1%, HNK Rijeka 99%

Last reading, 90+5': 0% · 1% · 99%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave HNK Rijeka 59% to win: they did.

  1. 5'HNK Rijeka:Samuele Vignato 1820 +23 assist Toni Fruk 1958 +12
  2. 36'HNK Rijeka:Branko pavic 1824 +12*
  3. 45'Rudes:Vid Seitz 1294 −8* for Xavier Cabrita Fernandes 1381 −8*
  4. 45+2'Rudes:Lovre Rogić 1535 −4
  5. 63'HNK Rijeka:D. Adu-Adjei 1899 +2 for Jakov Puljić 1476 +9
  6. 63'HNK Rijeka:Ivan Cubelic 1618 +12 for Justas Lasickas 1862 +4
  7. 67'Rudes:Lenny Ilecic 1265 0 for Ivan Đoric 1347 −3
  8. 67'Rudes:Kristijan Lovrić 1554 −11* for Saad El Haddad 1604 −5
  9. 71'Rudes:Vedran Celjak 1505 −8
  10. 74'HNK Rijeka:Toni Fruk 1958 +12
  11. 79'HNK Rijeka:Amer Gojak 1792 +1 for Branko pavic 1824 +12*
  12. 84'Rudes:filip taraba 1506 0 for Felipe Curcio 1416 −5
  13. 84'Rudes:Jurica Poldrugac 1463 −1 for Junior Fernandes 1469 −12
  14. 89'Rudes:Kristijan Lovrić 1554 −11*
  15. 89'HNK Rijeka:Noel Bodetic 1459 0 for Samuele Vignato 1820 +23
  16. 89'HNK Rijeka:Niko Janković 1817 0 for Toni Fruk 1958 +12
  17. 90+2'HNK Rijeka:Niko Janković 1817 0
  18. 90+4'Rudes:Noa skoko 1538 −10 assist Jurica Poldrugac 1463 −1

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-2-1Formations4-2-3-1
GL. Rogić1535−4
DB. Unušić1518−2
DV. Celjak1505−8
DS. Bralić1508−8
DM. Zebić1614−8
DFelipe Curcio1416−5
MI. Đorić1347−3
MN. Skoko1538−10
MXavi1381−8*
MS. El Haddad1604−5
FJ. Fernándes1469−12
CA. Peternac13180
GI. Vekič1687+12
DA. Oreč1912+14
DA. Majstorović1879+14
DA. Husic1886+18
DM. Devetak1897−2*
MTiago Dantas1928+15
MB. Pavić1824+12*
MJ. Lasickas1862+4
MT. Fruk1958+12
MS. Vignato1820+23
FJ. Puljić1476+9
CM. Kek1949+9
Before kick-off: 18% · 23% · 59%(Rudes · draw · HNK Rijeka)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 1–2 had 10%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Rudes €233K, HNK Rijeka €1.1M.
  • Style contrast in attacking (HNL): Rudes ranked #11 of 11, HNK Rijeka #3.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Rudes

9th in HNL · 7 pts from 9

  • 9 OctWHNK Gorica 1452
  • 18 SepDNK Slaven Belupo 1453
  • 13 SepLIstra 1961 1478
  • 6 SepLHNK Hajduk Split 1431
  • 29 AugLNK Varazdin 1461

HNK Rijeka

5th in HNL · 14 pts from 8

  • 11 OctLNK Slaven Belupo 1841
  • 20 SepWHNK Hajduk Split 1819
  • 12 SepDNK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1821
  • 5 SepWNK Osijek 1802
  • 31 AugDHNK Gorica 1846

Season outlook

From the HNL simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Rudes7 /933.70%<1%80%10th
HNK Rijeka14 /862.96%93%0%3rd
Rudes
HNK Rijeka

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: HNL

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

N. Skoko
N. Skoko

Rudes · +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1548

A. Oreč
A. Oreč

HNK Rijeka · +3.0 (Good) · Elo 1898

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Alen Peternac

Coach DNA: –

Matjaž Kek

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Rudes: low-block · direct (how Alen Peternac plays) · HNK Rijeka: balanced profile (how Matjaž Kek plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.