Premier League · Regular Season - 13
Rubin vs Fakel
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 12:15 UTC · Ak Bars Arena, Kazan
Rubin host Fakel on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Rubin 64%, draw 21%, Fakel 14%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Rubin €1.8M, Fakel €540K.
- Fakel's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Rubin goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Rubin 1795 · Fakel 1556
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Rubin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1922
Fakel · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1576
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Rubin
9th in Premier Liga · 12 pts from 11
- 18 OctLSpartak Moscow Russia Premier League1763
- 11 OctLDynamo Russia Premier League1800
- 16 SepDRodina Moskva Russia Premier League1801
- 12 SepDCSKA Moscow Russia Premier League1785
- 7 SepDAkhmat Russia Premier League1794
Fakel
15th in Premier Liga · 6 pts from 11
- 17 OctWKrylia Sovetov Russia Premier League1546
- 10 OctLLokomotiv Russia Premier League1545
- 16 SepLSpartak Moscow Russia Premier League1541
- 12 SepDBaltika Russia Premier League1532
- 5 SepLFC Rostov Russia Premier League1565
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin | 12 /11 | 38.6 | 0% | 1% | 3% | 7th |
| Fakel | 6 /11 | 22.5 | 0% | 0% | 89% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: low-volume
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Rubin: direct (how Francesc Artiga Cebrián plays) · Fakel: direct · low-volume (how Oleg Vasilenko plays)