League Two · Regular Season - 13
Rotherham vs Shrewsbury
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Aesseal New York Stadium, Rotherham
Rotherham host Shrewsbury on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Rotherham 43%, draw 28%, Shrewsbury 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Rotherham €314K, Shrewsbury €182K.
- Rotherham's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.6 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Rotherham goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Rotherham 1642 · Shrewsbury 1621
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Rotherham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Average) · Elo 1657
Shrewsbury · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1730
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Rotherham
23rd in League Two · 10 pts from 11
- 17 OctLFleetwood Town England League Two1647
- 10 OctLGillingham England League Two1671
- 6 OctLBradford England EFL Trophy1644
- 3 OctLExeter City England League Two1657
- 26 SepDCrewe England League Two1675
Shrewsbury
14th in League Two · 14 pts from 11
- 17 OctWBristol Rovers England League Two1619
- 10 OctLExeter City England League Two1608
- 3 OctWGrimsby England League Two1578
- 26 SepDColchester England League Two1543
- 22 SepLTranmere England EFL Trophy1476
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotherham | 10 /11 | 59.1 | <1% | 5% | 10% | 17th |
| Shrewsbury | 14 /11 | 61.3 | <1% | 7% | 6% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Rotherham: direct (how Alex Bruce plays) · Shrewsbury: direct (how Gavin Patrick Cowan plays)