League Two · Regular Season - 10
Rotherham 1–4 Gillingham
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · New York Stadium, Rotherham
RotherhamTeam 1617GillinghamTeam 1596- Paul Mullin 17'
- Ronan Chapman Hale 34'
- Lamin Sillah 60'
- Ronan Chapman Hale 67' (pen)
- Tom Eaves 89' (pen)
We gave Rotherham 41% to win: Gillingham won.
- Paul Mullin 1661 −7 assist kian spence 1727 −817'Rotherham:Paul Mullin 1661 −7 assist kian spence 1727 −8
- 34'Ronan Chapman Hale 1775 +96Gillingham:Ronan Chapman Hale 1775 +96
- Jamie Jellis 1648 −8* for Ossama Ashley 1726 −545'Rotherham:Jamie Jellis 1648 −8* for Ossama Ashley 1726 −5
- 47'James Brophy 1860 +16Gillingham:James Brophy 1860 +16
- 51'Logan Dobbs 1591 +55Gillingham:Logan Dobbs 1591 +55
- 60'Lamin Sillah 1509 +240 assist James Brophy 1860 +16Gillingham:Lamin Sillah 1509 +240 assist James Brophy 1860 +16
- Tom Bradshaw 1558 −6 for Josh Austerfield 1768 −1161'Rotherham:Tom Bradshaw 1558 −6 for Josh Austerfield 1768 −11
- Julian Eyestone 1731 −1166'Rotherham:Julian Eyestone 1731 −11
- 67'Ronan Chapman Hale 1775 +96 (pen.)Gillingham:Ronan Chapman Hale 1775 +96 (pen.)
- Aaron Nemane 1756 −5 for kian spence 1727 −868'Rotherham:Aaron Nemane 1756 −5 for kian spence 1727 −8
- Dominic Iorfa 1674 −575'Rotherham:Dominic Iorfa 1674 −5
- 77'Ethan·Coleman 1580 0* for Armani Little 1634 +42Gillingham:Ethan·Coleman 1580 0* for Armani Little 1634 +42
- 78'Bradley Dack 1491 +4 for Harry Waldock 1577 +53Gillingham:Bradley Dack 1491 +4 for Harry Waldock 1577 +53
- 82'S. Kendall 1546 +5 for Ronan Chapman Hale 1775 +96Gillingham:S. Kendall 1546 +5 for Ronan Chapman Hale 1775 +96
- 82'Tom Eaves 1497 +9 for Lamin Sillah 1509 +240Gillingham:Tom Eaves 1497 +9 for Lamin Sillah 1509 +240
- 83'Jack Daley 1678 +3 for Logan Dobbs 1591 +55Gillingham:Jack Daley 1678 +3 for Logan Dobbs 1591 +55
- Jayce Fitzgerald 1817 −1 for Dominic Iorfa 1674 −584'Rotherham:Jayce Fitzgerald 1817 −1 for Dominic Iorfa 1674 −5
- Sonny Aljofree 1601 088'Rotherham:Sonny Aljofree 1601 0
- 89'Tom Eaves 1497 +9 (pen.)Gillingham:Tom Eaves 1497 +9 (pen.)
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 41% · 31% · 28%(Rotherham · draw · Gillingham)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–4 had 1%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Rotherham €337K, Gillingham €187K.
- League Two: J. Brophy was the highest-rated midfielder (1844).
- Rotherham's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.2 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Rotherham
17th in League Two · 10 pts from 9
- 6 OctLBradford England EFL Trophy1644
- 3 OctLExeter City England League Two1657
- 26 SepDCrewe England League Two1675
- 22 SepDYork England EFL Trophy1578
- 19 SepWNorthampton England League Two1626
Gillingham
10th in League Two · 13 pts from 9
- 3 OctDNewport County England League Two1606
- 26 SepLYork England League Two1687
- 22 SepLCambridge United England EFL Trophy1513
- 19 SepWBristol Rovers England League Two1600
- 12 SepWTranmere England League Two1624
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotherham | 10 /9 | 64.5 | 2% | 15% | 3% | 6th |
| Gillingham | 13 /9 | 65.4 | 2% | 18% | 2% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Rotherham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1667
Gillingham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1844
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Rotherham: direct (how Alex Bruce plays) · Gillingham: balanced profile (how Gareth Ainsworth plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.