Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 9
Rodez 0–3 Montpellier
Mon 19 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stade Paul Lignon, Rodez
RodezTeam 1590MontpellierTeam 1758- Nicolas Pays 55'
- Laciné Megnan Pave 59'
- Daryll Benlahlou 76'
We gave Montpellier 42% to win: they did.
- Mathis Saka 172735'Rodez:Mathis Saka 1727
- 50'Yaël Mouanga Boudzoumou 1754Montpellier:Yaël Mouanga Boudzoumou 1754
- 55'Nicolas Pays 1814Montpellier:Nicolas Pays 1814
- 56'Daryll Benlahlou 1556 for Noah Vidal 1508Montpellier:Daryll Benlahlou 1556 for Noah Vidal 1508
- 59'Laciné Megnan Pave 1572Montpellier:Laciné Megnan Pave 1572
- Damjan Pavlović 1546 for Octave Joly 150362'Rodez:Damjan Pavlović 1546 for Octave Joly 1503
- Jean Lambert Evan's 1787 for Steven Luyambula Biwa 107262'Rodez:Jean Lambert Evan's 1787 for Steven Luyambula Biwa 1072
- Antonin Cartillier 1658 for Mathis Saka 172767'Rodez:Antonin Cartillier 1658 for Mathis Saka 1727
- Kenny Nagera 1770 for Mathis Touho 133568'Rodez:Kenny Nagera 1770 for Mathis Touho 1335
- 70'Yanis Zouaoui 1674 for Theo Sainte Luce 1836Montpellier:Yanis Zouaoui 1674 for Theo Sainte Luce 1836
- 76'Daryll Benlahlou 1556Montpellier:Daryll Benlahlou 1556
- Kelian Nsona 1690 for Nachon Nsingi 156380'Rodez:Kelian Nsona 1690 for Nachon Nsingi 1563
- 85'Hichem Abderrebi 1577 for Florian Tardieu 1725Montpellier:Hichem Abderrebi 1577 for Florian Tardieu 1725
- 85'Théo Chennahi 1769 for Laciné Megnan Pave 1572Montpellier:Théo Chennahi 1769 for Laciné Megnan Pave 1572
Line-ups
Before kick-off: 28% · 29% · 42%(Rodez · draw · Montpellier)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 0–3 had 4%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Rodez €692K, Montpellier €917K.
- Home advantage made Rodez the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
- Montpellier's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.9 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Rodez
17th in Ligue 2 · 7 pts from 8
- 10 OctLSaint Etienne France Ligue 21671
- 18 SepLNancy France Ligue 21633
- 11 SepLGrenoble France Ligue 21680
- 5 SepLMetz France Ligue 21673
- 28 AugDPAU France Ligue 21655
Montpellier
5th in Ligue 2 · 15 pts from 8
- 9 OctWGrenoble France Ligue 21724
- 18 SepDReims France Ligue 21753
- 11 SepWPAU France Ligue 21729
- 5 SepLSaint Etienne France Ligue 21736
- 28 AugDBoulogne France Ligue 21720
Season outlook
From the Ligue 2 simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez | 7 /8 | 44.0 | <1% | 6% | 8% | 11th |
| Montpellier | 15 /8 | 56.0 | 4% | 57% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Rodez · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1663
Montpellier · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1811
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Rodez: direct (how Didier Santini plays) · Montpellier: balanced profile (how Zoumana Camara plays)