League Two · Regular Season - 12
Rochdale vs Grimsby
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Spotland, Rochdale
Rochdale host Grimsby on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Rochdale 34%, draw 29%, Grimsby 37%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Rochdale €385K, Grimsby €269K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Rochdale goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 0–19%
- 1–08%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Rochdale 1561 · Grimsby 1646
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Rochdale · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1641
Grimsby · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Elite) · Elo 1734
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Rochdale
13th in League Two · 14 pts from 11
- 17 OctLCrewe England League Two1587
- 10 OctDTranmere England League Two1595
- 6 OctLHuddersfield England EFL Trophy1384
- 3 OctWSwindon Town England League Two1633
- 26 SepWFleetwood Town England League Two1534
Grimsby
15th in League Two · 13 pts from 11
- 17 OctLNorthampton England League Two1653
- 10 OctLPort Vale England League Two1678
- 6 OctDBurton Albion England EFL Trophy1468
- 3 OctLShrewsbury England League Two1612
- 26 SepLNewport County England League Two1724
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 14 /11 | 55.8 | 0% | 2% | 20% | 23rd |
| Grimsby | 13 /11 | 61.2 | <1% | 8% | 6% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile