Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 12
River Plate 1–0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UTC · El Monumental, Buenos Aires
River PlateTeam 2021Estudiantes de Rio CuartoTeam 1477- Marcos Acuña 6'
We gave River Plate 84% to win: they did.
- 2'Fernando Rodríguez –Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto:Fernando Rodríguez –
- Marcos Acuña –6'River Plate:Marcos Acuña –
- 16'Alejandro Martín Cabrera –Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto:Alejandro Martín Cabrera –
- 45'Yeison Daniel Moreno Murillo – for Ibrahim Hesar –Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto:Yeison Daniel Moreno Murillo – for Ibrahim Hesar –
- 45'Matias Valenti – for Fernando Rodríguez –Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto:Matias Valenti – for Fernando Rodríguez –
- 45'Martín Garnerone – for Mauro Valiente –Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto:Martín Garnerone – for Mauro Valiente –
- Thiago Almada – for Lautaro Pereyra –68'River Plate:Thiago Almada – for Lautaro Pereyra –
- Rafael Borré – for Sebastián Driussi –71'River Plate:Rafael Borré – for Sebastián Driussi –
- 80'Siro Rosané – for Tomás González –Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto:Siro Rosané – for Tomás González –
- 80'Mateo Bajamich – for Juan Antonini –Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto:Mateo Bajamich – for Juan Antonini –
- Facundo González – for Tomás Ezequiel Galván –89'River Plate:Facundo González – for Tomás Ezequiel Galván –
- Juan Cruz Meza – for Marcos Acuña –89'River Plate:Juan Cruz Meza – for Marcos Acuña –
Before kick-off (provisional): 84% · 11% · 5%(River Plate · draw · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto)
Our most likely score was 3–0 (10%); the result 1–0 had 5%.
- Average value of the expected XI: River Plate €5.3M, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto €235K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the Liga Profesional Clausura - 12: 544 points.
- Draw chance was 11%, below the Liga Profesional average of 27% this round.
- Liga Profesional: S. Beltrán was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2043).
- River Plate's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.5 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
River Plate
2nd in Liga Profesional · 29 pts from 16
- 19 SepLHuracan Argentina Liga Profesional2045
- 12 SepWAtletico Tucuman Argentina Liga Profesional2038
- 6 SepWIndepend. Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional2024
- 30 AugWBanfield Argentina Liga Profesional1998
- 27 AugDSanta Fe Copa Sudamericana2021
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
15th in Liga Profesional · 5 pts from 16
- 5 OctLRacing Club Argentina Liga Profesional1472
- 20 SepLBelgrano Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional1486
- 15 SepLInstituto Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional1496
- 4 SepLSarmiento Junin Argentina Liga Profesional1509
- 29 AugDHuracan Argentina Liga Profesional1477
Season outlook
From the Liga Profesional Argentina simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| River Plate | 29 /16 | 41.1 | 36% | 88% | 0% | 1st |
| Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 5 /16 | 9.0 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 30th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
River Plate · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 2035
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1522
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
River Plate: possession-based · creative (how Leonardo Ponzio plays) · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto: balanced profile (how Rubén Darío Forestello plays)