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Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8

Rio Ave 3–2 Nacional

Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UTC · Estádio dos Arcos, Condi Town

Rio Ave crestRio AveTeam 1639
3–2
Full time
HT 1–1
Nacional crestNacionalTeam 1533

Match story

Rio Ave · draw · Nacional

Before kick-off: 50% · 27% · 23%

Live chances: Rio Ave 100%, draw 0%, Nacional 0% at 90+8'1' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 50%, draw 27%, Nacional 23%2' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 50%, draw 27%, Nacional 23%3' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 50%, draw 28%, Nacional 23%4' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 50%, draw 28%, Nacional 23%5' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 49%, draw 28%, Nacional 23%6' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 49%, draw 28%, Nacional 23%7' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 49%, draw 28%, Nacional 23%8' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 49%, draw 28%, Nacional 23%9' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 49%, draw 29%, Nacional 23%10' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 49%, draw 29%, Nacional 23%11' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 48%, draw 29%, Nacional 23%12' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 48%, draw 29%, Nacional 23%13' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 48%, draw 29%, Nacional 23%14' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 48%, draw 29%, Nacional 23%15' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 48%, draw 30%, Nacional 23%16' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 47%, draw 30%, Nacional 23%17' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 47%, draw 30%, Nacional 23%18' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 47%, draw 30%, Nacional 23%19' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 47%, draw 30%, Nacional 23%20' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 47%, draw 31%, Nacional 23%21' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 46%, draw 31%, Nacional 23%22' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 46%, draw 31%, Nacional 23%23' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 46%, draw 31%, Nacional 23%24' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 46%, draw 31%, Nacional 23%25' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 46%, draw 32%, Nacional 23%26' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 45%, draw 32%, Nacional 23%27' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 45%, draw 32%, Nacional 23%28' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 45%, draw 32%, Nacional 23%29' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 45%, draw 33%, Nacional 23%30' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 44%, draw 33%, Nacional 23%31' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 44%, draw 33%, Nacional 23%32' · 0–0 · Rio Ave 44%, draw 33%, Nacional 23%33' · 0–1 · Rio Ave 22%, draw 28%, Nacional 50%34' · 0–1 · Rio Ave 22%, draw 28%, Nacional 50%35' · 0–1 · Rio Ave 21%, draw 28%, Nacional 50%36' · 0–1 · Rio Ave 21%, draw 28%, Nacional 51%37' · 0–1 · Rio Ave 21%, draw 28%, Nacional 51%38' · 0–1 · Rio Ave 20%, draw 28%, Nacional 51%39' · 0–1 · Rio Ave 20%, draw 28%, Nacional 52%40' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 42%, draw 36%, Nacional 22%41' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 41%, draw 36%, Nacional 22%42' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 41%, draw 37%, Nacional 22%43' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 41%, draw 37%, Nacional 22%44' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 41%, draw 37%, Nacional 22%45' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 40%, draw 38%, Nacional 22%45+1' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 40%, draw 38%, Nacional 22%HT · 1–1 · Rio Ave 39%, draw 39%, Nacional 22%47' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 39%, draw 40%, Nacional 22%48' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 38%, draw 40%, Nacional 22%49' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 38%, draw 41%, Nacional 21%50' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 38%, draw 41%, Nacional 21%51' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 37%, draw 42%, Nacional 21%52' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 37%, draw 42%, Nacional 21%53' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 36%, draw 43%, Nacional 21%54' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 36%, draw 43%, Nacional 21%55' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 35%, draw 44%, Nacional 21%56' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 22%, draw 46%, Nacional 32%57' · 1–1 · Rio Ave 22%, draw 47%, Nacional 31%58' · 2–1 · Rio Ave 68%, draw 24%, Nacional 8%59' · 2–1 · Rio Ave 69%, draw 24%, Nacional 7%60' · 2–2 · Rio Ave 21%, draw 49%, Nacional 30%61' · 2–2 · Rio Ave 21%, draw 50%, Nacional 30%62' · 2–2 · Rio Ave 21%, draw 50%, Nacional 29%63' · 2–2 · Rio Ave 20%, draw 51%, Nacional 29%64' · 2–2 · Rio Ave 20%, draw 52%, Nacional 28%65' · 2–2 · Rio Ave 20%, draw 53%, Nacional 28%66' · 2–2 · Rio Ave 19%, draw 53%, Nacional 27%67' · 2–2 · Rio Ave 19%, draw 54%, Nacional 27%68' · 2–2 · Rio Ave 19%, draw 55%, Nacional 26%69' · 2–2 · Rio Ave 18%, draw 56%, Nacional 26%70' · 2–2 · Rio Ave 18%, draw 57%, Nacional 25%71' · 2–2 · Rio Ave 17%, draw 58%, Nacional 25%72' · 2–2 · Rio Ave 17%, draw 59%, Nacional 24%73' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 76%, draw 20%, Nacional 4%74' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 76%, draw 20%, Nacional 4%75' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 77%, draw 20%, Nacional 3%76' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 78%, draw 19%, Nacional 3%77' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 78%, draw 19%, Nacional 3%78' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 79%, draw 18%, Nacional 3%79' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 80%, draw 18%, Nacional 3%80' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 81%, draw 17%, Nacional 2%81' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 82%, draw 16%, Nacional 2%82' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 82%, draw 16%, Nacional 2%84' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 84%, draw 14%, Nacional 1%85' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 85%, draw 14%, Nacional 1%86' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 86%, draw 13%, Nacional 1%87' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 87%, draw 12%, Nacional 1%88' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 88%, draw 11%, Nacional 1%89' · 3–3 · Rio Ave 7%, draw 82%, Nacional 11%90' · 3–3 · Rio Ave 7%, draw 84%, Nacional 9%90+1' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 92%, draw 8%, Nacional 0%90+2' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 93%, draw 7%, Nacional 0%90+3' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 95%, draw 5%, Nacional 0%90+4' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 96%, draw 4%, Nacional 0%90+5' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 98%, draw 2%, Nacional 0%90+6' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 99%, draw 1%, Nacional 0%90+7' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 100%, draw 0%, Nacional 0%90+8' · 3–2 · Rio Ave 100%, draw 0%, Nacional 0%

Last reading, 90+8': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Rio Ave 50% to win: they did.

  1. 32'Nacional:N. Kader 1475 −8* assist Chico Gonçalves 1331 −8*
  2. 39'Rio Ave:Sebastian Clemensen 1657 +42*
  3. 50'Rio Ave:João Tomé Baptista 1595 +10*
  4. 54'Rio Ave:João Tomé Baptista 1595 +10*
  5. 57'Rio Ave:Diogo Bezerra 1719 +44* assist Sebastian Clemensen 1657 +42*
  6. 59'Nacional:N. Kader 1475 −8*
  7. 63'Rio Ave:Roland Galcik 1549 +2* for Sebastian Clemensen 1657 +42*
  8. 63'Rio Ave:Francisco Petrasso 1715 −1* for Miguel Patricío 1500 +17*
  9. 68'Nacional:Fernando Nava Ortega 1412 −8* for Daniel de Melo Araujo Junior 1637 −8*
  10. 68'Nacional:Miguel Baeza 1534 −8* for Chiheb Labidi 1367 −8*
  11. 72'Rio Ave:Jalen Blesa 1762 +39* (pen.)
  12. 73'Rio Ave:Jalen Blesa 1762 +39*
  13. 76'Rio Ave:Diogo Nascimento 1950 −6* for Diogo Bezerra 1719 +44*
  14. 76'Rio Ave:Simón García 1843 −5* for Malik Sellouki 1684 +12*
  15. 78'Rio Ave:Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro 1611 −4* for Jalen Blesa 1762 +39*
  16. 78'Nacional:Allen Obando 1444 −8* for Matchoi Djaló 1427 −8*
  17. 81'Nacional:Joel da Silva 1535 −8* for N. Kader 1475 −8*
  18. 81'Nacional:Stavros Gavriel 1650 −8* for Song Min-kyu 1784 −17*
  19. 90+1'Rio Ave:Roland Galcik 1549 +2*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GVitor Hugo1591+22*
DJoão Tomé1595+10*
DG. Liavas1718+14*
DGustavo Mancha1739+13*
DM. Vrousai1737+12*
MA. Ntoi1745+13*
MM. Sellouki1684+12*
MS. Clemmensen1657+42*
MM. Patricio1500+17*
MDiogo Bezerra1719+44*
FJ. Blesa1762+39*
CVasco Seabra1845+20*
GRenato Bellucci1746−15*
DDeivison1368−8*
DFrancisco Gonçalves1331−8*
DZé Vitor1721−13*
DW. Kokolo1585−8*
MC. Labidi1367−8*
MD. Dongmo1516−8*
MDaniel Júnior1637−8*
MMatchoi Djaló1427−8*
MSong Min-Kyu1784−17*
FN. Kader1475−8*
CAlexandre Santos1535−8*
Before kick-off: 50% · 27% · 23%(Rio Ave · draw · Nacional)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 3–2 had 3%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Rio Ave €971K, Nacional €615K.
  • Style contrast in dribbling (Primeira Liga): Rio Ave ranked #4 of 18, Nacional #16.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Rio Ave

16th in Primeira Liga · 4 pts from 7

  • 19 SepLAlverca 1664
  • 14 SepDEstrela 1681
  • 6 SepLSanta Clara 1712
  • 28 AugLSporting CP 1730
  • 22 AugWEstoril 1701

Nacional

15th in Primeira Liga · 4 pts from 7

  • 19 SepLFamalicao 1591
  • 12 SepLAlverca 1615
  • 5 SepLSporting CP 1635
  • 30 AugLEstrela 1670
  • 23 AugLVitória SC 1686

Season outlook

From the Primeira Liga simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Rio Ave4 /735.30%<1%32%16th
Nacional4 /729.50%0%68%18th
Rio Ave
Nacional

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Primeira Liga

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

M. Sellouki
M. Sellouki

Rio Ave · +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1672

Renato Bellucci
Renato Bellucci

Nacional · +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1761

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Sotiris Silaidopoulos

Coach DNA: –

Alexandre Miguel Crispim dos Santos

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Rio Ave: balanced profile (how Sotiris Silaidopoulos plays) · Nacional: direct (how Alexandre Miguel Crispim dos Santos plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.