Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 9
Rio Ave vs Famalicao
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC
Rio Ave host Famalicao on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Rio Ave 36%, draw 29%, Famalicao 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Rio Ave €985K, Famalicao €2.1M.
- Home advantage makes Rio Ave the favourite here: it adds 7 points to their win chance.
- Draw chance 29%, above the Primeira Liga average of 23% this round.
- Only 2 of Famalicao's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Rio Ave goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–19%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Rio Ave 1723 · Famalicao 1799
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Rio Ave · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Average) · Elo 1762
Famalicao · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Elite) · Elo 1930
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Rio Ave
14th in Primeira Liga · 7 pts from 8
- 11 OctWNacional Primeira Liga1666
- 19 SepLAlverca Primeira Liga1664
- 14 SepDEstrela Primeira Liga1681
- 6 SepLSanta Clara Primeira Liga1712
- 28 AugLSporting CP Primeira Liga1730
Famalicao
13th in Primeira Liga · 7 pts from 8
- 12 OctLAlverca Primeira Liga1813
- 19 SepWNacional Primeira Liga1797
- 13 SepDSporting CP Primeira Liga1787
- 5 SepDEstrela Primeira Liga1786
- 30 AugDGIL Vicente Primeira Liga1826
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | 7 /8 | 37.5 | 0% | <1% | 19% | 14th |
| Famalicao | 7 /8 | 40.8 | 0% | 1% | 8% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Rio Ave: balanced profile (how Vasco César Freire de Seabra plays) · Famalicao: balanced profile (how Carlos Augusto Soares da Costa Faria Carvalhal plays)