Virsliga · Regular Season - 25
Rīgas FS 4–0 Super Nova
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · LNK Sporta Parks, Riga
Rīgas FSTeam 1617
Super NovaTeam 1297- Z. Lipuscek 9'
- A. Balde 12'
- J. Ikaunieks 45+2'
- D. Korac 86' (pen)
We gave Rīgas FS 68% to win: they did.
- Z. Lipuscek – assist D. Zelenkovs –9'
Rīgas FS:Z. Lipuscek – assist D. Zelenkovs – - A. Balde – assist J. Ikaunieks –12'
Rīgas FS:A. Balde – assist J. Ikaunieks – - R. Savalnieks – for D. Zelenkovs –29'
Rīgas FS:R. Savalnieks – for D. Zelenkovs – - 45+1'R. Kirss –
Super Nova:R. Kirss – - J. Ikaunieks – assist D. Lemajic –45+2'
Rīgas FS:J. Ikaunieks – assist D. Lemajic – - S. Kumater – for H. Prenga –46'
Rīgas FS:S. Kumater – for H. Prenga – - 46'A. Glaudans – for J. Cirulis –
Super Nova:A. Glaudans – for J. Cirulis – - 46'R. Iida – for R. Kirss –
Super Nova:R. Iida – for R. Kirss – - M. Kigurs – for L. Odisharia –57'
Rīgas FS:M. Kigurs – for L. Odisharia – - 65'K. Augusts – for Bamba –
Super Nova:K. Augusts – for Bamba – - 65'E. Emsis – for I. Patrikejevs –
Super Nova:E. Emsis – for I. Patrikejevs – - D. Korac – for A. Balde –77'
Rīgas FS:D. Korac – for A. Balde – - 77'A. Baghdasaryan – for R. Sitjakovs –
Super Nova:A. Baghdasaryan – for R. Sitjakovs – - A. Kouadio – for D. Lemajic –77'
Rīgas FS:A. Kouadio – for D. Lemajic – - S. Kumater –79'
Rīgas FS:S. Kumater – - D. Korac – (pen.)86'
Rīgas FS:D. Korac – (pen.)
Before kick-off (provisional): 68% · 20% · 13%(Rīgas FS · draw · Super Nova)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 4–0 had 5%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Rīgas FS €423K, Super Nova €159K.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Rīgas FS
1st in Virsliga · 77 pts from 31
- 11 OctWFS Jelgava Latvia Virsliga1643
- 20 SepDAuda Latvia Virsliga1605
- 13 SepWBFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga1554
- 7 SepDFK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga1626
- 13 AugLFK Jablonec UEFA Conference League1634
Super Nova
6th in Virsliga · 38 pts from 31
- 15 SepLRiga Latvia Virsliga1299
- 10 SepWTukums Latvia Virsliga1262
- 29 AugDAuda Latvia Virsliga1285
- 29 MayLRīgas FS Latvia Virsliga1253
- 24 MayLRiga Latvia Virsliga1309
Season outlook
From the Virsliga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rīgas FS | 77 /31 | 86.9 | 67% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Super Nova | 38 /31 | 42.4 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Rīgas FS · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1547
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –