Virsliga · Regular Season - 32
Rīgas FS 4–2 FS Jelgava
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Bislett Stadium, Oslo
Rīgas FSTeam 1609
FS JelgavaTeam 1283- D. Lemajic 55', 64'
- S. Panic 62' (pen)
- R. Ndjiki 81'
- F. Hasek 28', 47'
We gave Rīgas FS 68% to win: they did.
- 28'F. Hasek – assist G. Zaleiko –
FS Jelgava:F. Hasek – assist G. Zaleiko – - 33'G. Zaleiko –
FS Jelgava:G. Zaleiko – - 45+3'G. Patika –
FS Jelgava:G. Patika – - D. Lemajic – for A. Kouadio –46'
Rīgas FS:D. Lemajic – for A. Kouadio – - 47'F. Hasek – assist M. Hasek –
FS Jelgava:F. Hasek – assist M. Hasek – - D. Lemajic – assist L. Odisharia –55'
Rīgas FS:D. Lemajic – assist L. Odisharia – - M. Kigurs – for M. Saidy –56'
Rīgas FS:M. Kigurs – for M. Saidy – - 62'A. Kangars –
FS Jelgava:A. Kangars – - S. Panic – (pen.)62'
Rīgas FS:S. Panic – (pen.) - D. Lemajic – assist L. Odisharia –64'
Rīgas FS:D. Lemajic – assist L. Odisharia – - 69'A. Deklavs – for G. Patika –
FS Jelgava:A. Deklavs – for G. Patika – - A. Filipovic –74'
Rīgas FS:A. Filipovic – - 77'R. Melkis – for R. Becers –
FS Jelgava:R. Melkis – for R. Becers – - 77'M. Pudil – for E. Smaukstelis –
FS Jelgava:M. Pudil – for E. Smaukstelis – - S. Panic –80'
Rīgas FS:S. Panic – - R. Ndjiki – assist J. Ikaunieks –81'
Rīgas FS:R. Ndjiki – assist J. Ikaunieks – - A. Balde – for L. Odisharia –85'
Rīgas FS:A. Balde – for L. Odisharia – - 85'K. Bernans – for G. Zaleiko –
FS Jelgava:K. Bernans – for G. Zaleiko – - 85'G. Kacanovs – for K. Alekseiciks –
FS Jelgava:G. Kacanovs – for K. Alekseiciks – - N. Dusalijevs – for J. Ikaunieks –90'
Rīgas FS:N. Dusalijevs – for J. Ikaunieks – - D. Korac – for R. Ndjiki –90'
Rīgas FS:D. Korac – for R. Ndjiki –
Before kick-off (provisional): 68% · 20% · 12%(Rīgas FS · draw · FS Jelgava)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 4–2 had 2%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Rīgas FS €369K, FS Jelgava €133K.
- A. Dvorak, J. Novikovs and Arturs Janovskis (FS Jelgava) had not played for over 90 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Rīgas FS
2nd in Virsliga · 74 pts from 30
- 20 SepDAuda Latvia Virsliga1605
- 13 SepWBFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga1554
- 7 SepDFK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga1626
- 13 AugLFK Jablonec UEFA Conference League1634
- 6 AugLFK Jablonec UEFA Conference League1649
FS Jelgava
7th in Virsliga · 32 pts from 31
- 29 AugWTukums Latvia Virsliga1259
- 31 MayDBFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga1250
- 26 MayDFK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga1246
- 21 MayLRīgas FS Latvia Virsliga1249
- 16 MayDRiga Latvia Virsliga1232
Season outlook
From the Virsliga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rīgas FS | 74 /30 | 86.1 | 59% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| FS Jelgava | 32 /31 | 37.7 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Rīgas FS · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1547
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –