Virsliga · Regular Season - 33
Riga 2–1 Super Nova
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Skonto, Riga
RigaTeam 1581Super NovaTeam 1271- Iago Siqueira 68'
- M. Badamosi 75'
- R. Kirss 22'
We gave Riga 67% to win: they did.
- 22'R. Kirss 1239 −1Super Nova:R. Kirss 1239 −1
- M. Diop 1466 +13 for S. L. Robalo Pedro 1475 +1346'Riga:M. Diop 1466 +13 for S. L. Robalo Pedro 1475 +13
- A. Taiwo 1563 −5* for Abner 1699 −1*46'Riga:A. Taiwo 1563 −5* for Abner 1699 −1*
- R. Aouani 1368 +3548'Riga:R. Aouani 1368 +35
- Reginaldo Ramires 1782 +249'Riga:Reginaldo Ramires 1782 +2
- 53'R. Kirss 1239 −1Super Nova:R. Kirss 1239 −1
- 55'V. Lizunovs 1371 −9*Super Nova:V. Lizunovs 1371 −9*
- 59'A. Glaudans 1319 −8* for R. Kirss 1239 −1Super Nova:A. Glaudans 1319 −8* for R. Kirss 1239 −1
- 59'I. Ndiaye 1242 0 for Bamba 1305 0Super Nova:I. Ndiaye 1242 0 for Bamba 1305 0
- M. Badamosi 1702 +4 for Reginaldo Ramires 1782 +259'Riga:M. Badamosi 1702 +4 for Reginaldo Ramires 1782 +2
- R. Jurkovskis 1772 −1 for M. Tonisevs 1731 +760'Riga:R. Jurkovskis 1772 −1 for M. Tonisevs 1731 +7
- 63'I. Patrikejevs 1477 −5Super Nova:I. Patrikejevs 1477 −5
- Iago Siqueira 1780 +9 assist C. Saco 1321 +3868'Riga:Iago Siqueira 1780 +9 assist C. Saco 1321 +38
- 71'I. Ndiaye 1242 0Super Nova:I. Ndiaye 1242 0
- M. Badamosi 1702 +4 assist R. Aouani 1368 +3575'Riga:M. Badamosi 1702 +4 assist R. Aouani 1368 +35
- 81'M. Tihonovics 1348 0 for K. Romanovs 881 0Super Nova:M. Tihonovics 1348 0 for K. Romanovs 881 0
- 82'N. Pathe 1249 0 for E. Emsis 1378 −12*Super Nova:N. Pathe 1249 0 for E. Emsis 1378 −12*
- 87'M. Oss 1278 −14*Super Nova:M. Oss 1278 −14*
- 87'J. Cirulis 1237 0Super Nova:J. Cirulis 1237 0
- 88'K. Skadmanis 1137 0 for I. Patrikejevs 1477 −5Super Nova:K. Skadmanis 1137 0 for I. Patrikejevs 1477 −5
- B. Musah 1773 0 for C. Saco 1321 +3889'Riga:B. Musah 1773 0 for C. Saco 1321 +38
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 67% · 20% · 13%(Riga · draw · Super Nova)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 2–1 had 10%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Riga €457K, Super Nova €155K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Virsliga matchday 33: 394 points.
- Virsliga: A. Salazar was the highest-rated defender (1780).
- Only 2 of Super Nova's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Riga
2nd in Virsliga · 76 pts from 32
- 15 OctDKairat Almaty UEFA Conference League1637
- 15 SepWSuper Nova Latvia Virsliga1620
- 7 SepDBFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga1694
- 31 AugLFK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga1604
- 27 AugWKI Klaksvik UEFA Conference League1660
Super Nova
6th in Virsliga · 38 pts from 32
- 15 OctLRīgas FS Latvia Virsliga1255
- 15 SepLRiga Latvia Virsliga1299
- 10 SepWTukums Latvia Virsliga1262
- 29 AugDAuda Latvia Virsliga1285
- 29 MayLRīgas FS Latvia Virsliga1253
Season outlook
From the Virsliga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga | 76 /32 | 84.5 | 22% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| Super Nova | 38 /32 | 41.6 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Riga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Good) · Elo 1772
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.