Premier Soccer League · Regular Season - 8
Richards Bay 1–4 Mamelodi Sundowns
Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Richards Bay Stadium (Umhlathuze), Richards Bay
Richards BayTeam 1228Mamelodi SundownsTeam 1713- Tashreeq Matthews 18'
- Iqraam Rayners 37', 48'
- Fawaaz basadien 59'
We gave Mamelodi Sundowns 69% to win: they did.
- 18'Tashreeq Matthews – assist S. Mthanti –Mamelodi Sundowns:Tashreeq Matthews – assist S. Mthanti –
- Lwandile Sandile Mabuya –22'Richards Bay:Lwandile Sandile Mabuya –
- 37'Iqraam Rayners – assist Tashreeq Matthews –Mamelodi Sundowns:Iqraam Rayners – assist Tashreeq Matthews –
- 48'Iqraam Rayners –Mamelodi Sundowns:Iqraam Rayners –
- 59'Fawaaz basadien – assist Teboho Mokoena –Mamelodi Sundowns:Fawaaz basadien – assist Teboho Mokoena –
- 63'Themba Zwane – for S. Mthanti –Mamelodi Sundowns:Themba Zwane – for S. Mthanti –
- 63'Thabo Cele – for Teboho Mokoena –Mamelodi Sundowns:Thabo Cele – for Teboho Mokoena –
- 63'Antonio Van Wyk – for Tashreeq Matthews –Mamelodi Sundowns:Antonio Van Wyk – for Tashreeq Matthews –
- 64'Nuno Santos – for Cassius Mailula –Mamelodi Sundowns:Nuno Santos – for Cassius Mailula –
- Lundi Mahala – for Nqaba Xulu –67'Richards Bay:Lundi Mahala – for Nqaba Xulu –
- Wandile Ngidi for Luyanda Khumalo –67'Richards Bay:Wandile Ngidi for Luyanda Khumalo –
- Wandile Ngema – for S. Nzama –68'Richards Bay:Wandile Ngema – for S. Nzama –
- 79'Fawaaz basadien –Mamelodi Sundowns:Fawaaz basadien –
- 79'Mothobi Mvala – for Malibongwe Prince Khoza –Mamelodi Sundowns:Mothobi Mvala – for Malibongwe Prince Khoza –
- Olwethu Mbambo – for M. Mthembu –86'Richards Bay:Olwethu Mbambo – for M. Mthembu –
- Sbani Khumalo – for S. Gwele –86'Richards Bay:Sbani Khumalo – for S. Gwele –
Before kick-off (provisional): 12% · 19% · 69%(Richards Bay · draw · Mamelodi Sundowns)
Our most likely score was 0–2 (11%); the result 1–4 had 4%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Richards Bay €171K, Mamelodi Sundowns €1.1M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Premier Soccer League matchday 8: 485 points.
- Premier Soccer League: R. Williams was the highest-rated goalkeeper (1876).
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Premier Soccer League): Richards Bay ranked #1 of 17, Mamelodi Sundowns #17.
- Mamelodi Sundowns were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Richards Bay
14th in Premier Soccer League · 3 pts from 7
- 19 SepLSekhukhune United South Africa PSL1222
- 13 SepLMilford FC South Africa PSL1223
- 4 SepLAmazulu South Africa PSL1263
- 26 AugDKaizer Chiefs South Africa PSL1242
- 11 AugDChippa United South Africa PSL1231
Mamelodi Sundowns
1st in Premier Soccer League · 20 pts from 8
- 19 SepWAl-Ahli Jeddah FIFA Intercontinental Cup1729
- 12 SepDChippa United South Africa PSL1689
- 9 SepWSiwelele South Africa PSL1688
- 6 SepWGolden Arrows South Africa PSL1727
- 2 SepWMilford FC South Africa PSL1666
Season outlook
From the Premier Soccer League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richards Bay | 3 /7 | 29.7 | 0% | <1% | 36% | 14th |
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 20 /8 | 69.7 | 67% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Richards Bay · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1289
Mamelodi Sundowns · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1827
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct · high-pressing
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Richards Bay: balanced profile (how Ronnie Gabriel plays) · Mamelodi Sundowns: possession-based · low-block (how José Miguel Azevedo Cardoso plays)