Bundesliga · Regular Season - 11
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Red Bull Arena, Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg host Austria Lustenau on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Red Bull Salzburg 75%, draw 16%, Austria Lustenau 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Red Bull Salzburg €2.5M, Austria Lustenau €313K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Bundesliga matchday 11: 405 points.
- Draw chance 16%, below the Bundesliga average of 26% this round.
- Bundesliga: K. Boma is the highest-rated defender (2032).
- Style contrast in chance creation (Bundesliga): Red Bull Salzburg rank #1 of 12, Austria Lustenau #12.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Red Bull Salzburg goals first.
- 2–011%
- 3–09%
- 2–19%
- 3–18%
- 1–18%
- 1–07%
- Other scores48%
Team Elo: Red Bull Salzburg 1931 · Austria Lustenau 1526
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Red Bull Salzburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 2032
Austria Lustenau · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1536
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Red Bull Salzburg
2nd in Bundesliga · 21 pts from 9
- 18 OctWSCR Altach Austrian Bundesliga1934
- 15 OctLAC Milan UEFA Europa League1955
- 10 OctDGrazer AK Austrian Bundesliga1939
- 20 SepWSturm Graz Austrian Bundesliga1910
- 17 SepWLevski Sofia UEFA Europa League1918
Austria Lustenau
9th in Bundesliga · 8 pts from 9
- 17 OctLLask Linz Austrian Bundesliga1490
- 11 OctLTSV Hartberg Austrian Bundesliga1534
- 19 SepWSCR Altach Austrian Bundesliga1482
- 13 SepLAustria Vienna Austrian Bundesliga1493
- 28 AugLWSG Wattens Austrian Bundesliga1486
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg | 21 /9 | 45.3 | 37% | 99% | 0% | 1st |
| Austria Lustenau | 8 /9 | 19.4 | 0% | 0% | 76% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: low-volume
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Red Bull Salzburg: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Danny Röhl plays) · Austria Lustenau: direct (how Markus Mader plays)