La Liga · Regular Season - 12
Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Anoeta, San Sebastian
Real Sociedad host Rayo Vallecano on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (La Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Real Sociedad 61%, draw 23%, Rayo Vallecano 16%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Real Sociedad €15.1M, Rayo Vallecano €4.6M.
- All 11 of Rayo Vallecano's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Real Sociedad are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Real Sociedad goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.4 pts
Team Elo: Real Sociedad 2214 · Rayo Vallecano 2029
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Real Sociedad · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 2244
Rayo Vallecano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2082
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Real Sociedad
5th in La Liga · 16 pts from 9
- 22 OctWLillestrom UEFA Europa League2231
- 18 OctWMalaga La Liga2180
- 15 OctDUnion St. Gilloise UEFA Europa League2169
- 11 OctWDeportivo La Coruna La Liga2156
- 20 SepWValencia La Liga2148
Rayo Vallecano
14th in La Liga · 9 pts from 8
- 19 OctDGetafe La Liga2046
- 19 SepDOsasuna La Liga2083
- 15 SepWEspanyol La Liga2010
- 12 SepLReal Madrid La Liga1978
- 5 SepWRacing Santander La Liga2050
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 16 /9 | 64.3 | 0% | 21% | 0% | 5th |
| Rayo Vallecano | 9 /8 | 45.2 | 0% | <1% | 5% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Real Sociedad: balanced profile (how Pellegrino Matarazzo plays) · Rayo Vallecano: balanced profile (how Beñat San José plays)