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Segunda División · Regular Season - 10

Real Sociedad II 2–4 Almeria

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Estadio Ciudad Deportiva Zubieta, San Sebastian

Real Sociedad II crestReal Sociedad IITeam 1580
2–4
Full time
HT 0–2
Almeria crestAlmeriaTeam 1895

Match story

Real Sociedad II · draw · Almeria

Before kick-off: 22% · 26% · 52%

Live chances: Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 0%, Almeria 100% at 90+8'2' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 22%, draw 26%, Almeria 51%3' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 22%, draw 27%, Almeria 51%4' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 22%, draw 27%, Almeria 51%5' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 22%, draw 27%, Almeria 51%6' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 22%, draw 27%, Almeria 51%7' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 22%, draw 27%, Almeria 51%8' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 22%, draw 27%, Almeria 51%9' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 22%, draw 27%, Almeria 50%10' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 22%, draw 27%, Almeria 50%11' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 22%, draw 28%, Almeria 50%12' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 22%, draw 28%, Almeria 50%13' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 22%, draw 28%, Almeria 50%14' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 22%, draw 28%, Almeria 50%15' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 22%, draw 28%, Almeria 49%16' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 22%, draw 28%, Almeria 49%17' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 22%, draw 29%, Almeria 49%18' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 23%, draw 29%, Almeria 49%19' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 23%, draw 29%, Almeria 49%20' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 23%, draw 29%, Almeria 48%21' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 23%, draw 29%, Almeria 48%22' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 23%, draw 29%, Almeria 48%23' · 0–0 · Real Sociedad II 23%, draw 30%, Almeria 48%24' · 0–1 · Real Sociedad II 10%, draw 20%, Almeria 70%25' · 0–1 · Real Sociedad II 10%, draw 20%, Almeria 70%26' · 0–1 · Real Sociedad II 10%, draw 20%, Almeria 70%27' · 0–1 · Real Sociedad II 10%, draw 20%, Almeria 70%28' · 0–1 · Real Sociedad II 10%, draw 20%, Almeria 70%29' · 0–1 · Real Sociedad II 10%, draw 20%, Almeria 71%30' · 0–1 · Real Sociedad II 10%, draw 20%, Almeria 71%31' · 0–1 · Real Sociedad II 9%, draw 20%, Almeria 71%32' · 0–1 · Real Sociedad II 9%, draw 20%, Almeria 71%33' · 0–1 · Real Sociedad II 9%, draw 20%, Almeria 71%34' · 0–1 · Real Sociedad II 9%, draw 20%, Almeria 71%35' · 0–1 · Real Sociedad II 9%, draw 20%, Almeria 71%36' · 0–1 · Real Sociedad II 9%, draw 20%, Almeria 71%37' · 0–1 · Real Sociedad II 9%, draw 20%, Almeria 71%38' · 0–1 · Real Sociedad II 9%, draw 20%, Almeria 71%39' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 2%, draw 6%, Almeria 92%40' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 6%, Almeria 92%41' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 6%, Almeria 92%42' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 6%, Almeria 93%43' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 6%, Almeria 93%44' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 6%, Almeria 93%45+1' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 6%, Almeria 93%45+2' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 6%, Almeria 93%45+3' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 6%, Almeria 93%45+4' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 6%, Almeria 93%HT · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 6%, Almeria 93%46' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 6%, Almeria 93%47' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 5%, Almeria 93%48' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 5%, Almeria 94%49' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 5%, Almeria 94%50' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 5%, Almeria 94%51' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 5%, Almeria 94%52' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 5%, Almeria 94%53' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 5%, Almeria 94%54' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 5%, Almeria 94%55' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 5%, Almeria 95%57' · 0–2 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 4%, Almeria 95%59' · 0–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 1%, Almeria 99%60' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 4%, Almeria 95%61' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 4%, Almeria 96%62' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 4%, Almeria 96%63' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 1%, draw 4%, Almeria 96%64' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 4%, Almeria 96%65' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 3%, Almeria 96%66' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 3%, Almeria 96%67' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 3%, Almeria 96%68' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 3%, Almeria 97%69' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 3%, Almeria 97%70' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 3%, Almeria 97%71' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 3%, Almeria 97%72' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 3%, Almeria 97%73' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 2%, Almeria 97%74' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 2%, Almeria 98%75' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 2%, Almeria 98%76' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 2%, Almeria 98%77' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 2%, Almeria 98%78' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 2%, Almeria 98%79' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 2%, Almeria 98%80' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 1%, Almeria 98%81' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 1%, Almeria 99%82' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 1%, Almeria 99%83' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 1%, Almeria 99%84' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 1%, Almeria 99%85' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 1%, Almeria 99%86' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 1%, Almeria 99%87' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 1%, Almeria 99%88' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 1%, Almeria 99%89' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 0%, Almeria 100%90' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 0%, Almeria 100%90+1' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 0%, Almeria 100%90+2' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 0%, Almeria 100%90+3' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 0%, Almeria 100%90+4' · 1–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 0%, Almeria 100%90+5' · 2–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 2%, Almeria 98%90+6' · 2–3 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 1%, Almeria 99%90+7' · 2–4 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 0%, Almeria 100%90+8' · 2–4 · Real Sociedad II 0%, draw 0%, Almeria 100%

Last reading, 90+8': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Almeria 52% to win: they did.

  1. 23'Almeria:Brian Cipenga 1970 +31 assist Javier Muñoz Jiménez 1926 +33
  2. 30'Almeria:Jon Morcillo 1782 +15 for Daijiro Chirino 1846 +7
  3. 34'Real Sociedad II:Dani Diaz 1660 −14
  4. 37'Almeria:Jorge Pulido 1586 +22*
  5. 38'Almeria:Miguel De La Fuente 1939 +43
  6. 49'Real Sociedad II:Javier Soroeta 1413 0
  7. 54'Almeria:Sergio Arribas Calvo 1971 +37 (pen.)
  8. 58'Real Sociedad II:Lander Astiazarán 1679 −20 assist Dani Diaz 1660 −14
  9. 68'Real Sociedad II:Gorka Carrera Zarranz 1677 −2 for Javier Soroeta 1413 0
  10. 68'Real Sociedad II:Arkaitz Mariezkurrena 1662 −11* for Gorka Gorosabel 1689 −6
  11. 68'Real Sociedad II:Jon Eceizabarrena 1463 0 for Ibai Aguirre 1644 −3
  12. 74'Almeria:Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo 1798 +4 for Brian Cipenga 1970 +31
  13. 74'Almeria:Álex Muñoz 1864 0 for Leonardo Lelo 2047 +8
  14. 81'Real Sociedad II:Andrews Adjabeng 1378 0 for Dani Diaz 1660 −14
  15. 86'Almeria:Léo Baptistão 1738 −5 for Miguel De La Fuente 1939 +43
  16. 86'Almeria:Quim junyent 1780 +1 for Sergio Arribas Calvo 1971 +37
  17. 88'Real Sociedad II:Sydney Osazuwa 1364 0 for Iker Calderon 1376 0
  18. 90+5'Real Sociedad II:Arkaitz Mariezkurrena 1662 −11*
  19. 90+6'Almeria:Inaki Ruperez 1734 −11 (own goal)

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-4-2Formations4-2-3-1
GAitor Fraga1739−11
DRupérez1734−11
DI. Calderon13760
DK. Kita1704−9
DJon Balda1662−5
MLander Astiazarán1679−20
MIbai Aguirre1644−3
MTomás Carbonell1666−6
MGorka Gorosabel1689−6
FDani Díaz1660−14
FJavier Soroeta14130
CIon Ansotegi1666−11
GAndrés Fernández1899+43
DMarcos Luna1863+20
DJorge Pulido1586+22*
DF. Bonini1939+16
DLeonardo Lelo2047+8
MS. Džodić1886+19
MJavi Muñoz1926+33
MD. Chirino1846+7
MSergio Arribas1971+37
MB. Cipenga1970+31
FMiguel de la Fuente1939+43
CJavier Garcia Pimienta Francisco1607
Before kick-off: 22% · 26% · 52%(Real Sociedad II · draw · Almeria)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–4 had 1%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Real Sociedad II €845K, Almeria €1.5M.
  • Largest team-Elo gap of Segunda División matchday 10: 228 points.
  • Real Sociedad II's expected eleven was out of form: average -1.4 over 180 days.
  • Only 0 of Real Sociedad II's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
  • Almeria had won their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Real Sociedad II

19th in Segunda División · 8 pts from 9

  • 10 OctLCelta de Vigo II 1620
  • 4 OctLGranada CF 1659
  • 26 SepLAD Ceuta FC 1654
  • 19 SepLMallorca 1706
  • 12 SepWFC Andorra 1634

Almeria

1st in Segunda División · 21 pts from 9

  • 11 OctWLeganes 1849
  • 3 OctWBurgos 1848
  • 27 SepWMallorca 1808
  • 20 SepWCelta de Vigo II 1821
  • 12 SepWCordoba 1808

Season outlook

From the Segunda División simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Real Sociedad II8 /944.50%0%45%21st
Almeria21 /973.220%65%0%1st
Real Sociedad II
Almeria

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 22nd on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Segunda División

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Jon Balda
Jon Balda

Real Sociedad II · -0.5 (Average) · Elo 1667

S. Džodić
S. Džodić

Almeria · +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1867

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Jon Ansotegi Gorostola

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Javier Garcia Pimienta Francisco

Coach DNA: –

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Real Sociedad II: balanced profile (how Jon Ansotegi Gorostola plays) · Almeria: creative · shot-heavy (how Javier Garcia Pimienta Francisco plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.