La Liga · Regular Season - 8
Real Madrid 1–0 Villarreal
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid
Real MadridTeam 2515VillarrealTeam 2184Match story
Real Madrid · draw · VillarrealBefore kick-off: 72% · 17% · 11%
Last reading, 90+8': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Yan Diomande 62'
We gave Real Madrid 72% to win: they did.
- 10'Renato Veiga 2291 −6Villarreal:Renato Veiga 2291 −6
- Jude Bellingham 2546 +519'Real Madrid:Jude Bellingham 2546 +5
- Marc Cucurella 2585 +1 for Álvaro Fernández Carreras 2427 +2*45'Real Madrid:Marc Cucurella 2585 +1 for Álvaro Fernández Carreras 2427 +2*
- Vinícius 2509 −6* for Trent Alexander-Arnold 2517 +252'Real Madrid:Vinícius 2509 −6* for Trent Alexander-Arnold 2517 +2
- 56'Nathan-Dylan Saliba 2010 −8* for Santi Comesaña 2160 −11*Villarreal:Nathan-Dylan Saliba 2010 −8* for Santi Comesaña 2160 −11*
- 56'Carlos Romero 2031 −8* for Juan Foyth 2206 −11*Villarreal:Carlos Romero 2031 −8* for Juan Foyth 2206 −11*
- Yan Diomande 2340 +16* assist Federico Valverde 2487 +8*62'Real Madrid:Yan Diomande 2340 +16* assist Federico Valverde 2487 +8*
- 67'Gerard Moreno 2030 −14* for Ilias Akhomach Chakkour 2215 −10*Villarreal:Gerard Moreno 2030 −14* for Ilias Akhomach Chakkour 2215 −10*
- 67'Georges Mikautadze 2199 −1 for Sergi Cardona Bermúdez 2235 −11*Villarreal:Georges Mikautadze 2199 −1 for Sergi Cardona Bermúdez 2235 −11*
- José Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix68'Real Madrid:José Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix
- Vinícius 2509 −6*72'Real Madrid:Vinícius 2509 −6*
- Eduardo Camavinga 2506 +1 for Arda Güler 2357 +877'Real Madrid:Eduardo Camavinga 2506 +1 for Arda Güler 2357 +8
- Ibrahima Konaté 2443 −1*81'Real Madrid:Ibrahima Konaté 2443 −1*
- Antonio Rüdiger 2348 −4*83'Real Madrid:Antonio Rüdiger 2348 −4*
- 84'Pau Navarro 2126 −9*Villarreal:Pau Navarro 2126 −9*
- Denzel Dumfries 2427 −2 for Yan Diomande 2340 +16*86'Real Madrid:Denzel Dumfries 2427 −2 for Yan Diomande 2340 +16*
- 86'Nizar El Jmili 1940 −8* for Alberto Moleiro 2200 −11*Villarreal:Nizar El Jmili 1940 −8* for Alberto Moleiro 2200 −11*
- Aurelien Tchouameni 2523 −3*87'Real Madrid:Aurelien Tchouameni 2523 −3*
- Kylian Mbappé 2530 −3*90+4'Real Madrid:Kylian Mbappé 2530 −3*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 72% · 17% · 11%(Real Madrid · draw · Villarreal)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (10%); the result 1–0 had 7%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Real Madrid €55.8M, Villarreal €13.6M.
- Real Madrid were without 1 expected starter: D. Huijsen (2538).
- Villarreal were without 1 expected starter: T. Buchanan (2163).
- Draw chance was 19%, below the La Liga average of 25% this round.
- Real Madrid's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.9 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Real Madrid
4th in La Liga · 15 pts from 7
- 20 SepLAtletico Madrid La Liga2494
- 15 SepWElche La Liga2475
- 12 SepWRayo Vallecano La Liga2453
- 8 SepWInter UEFA Champions League2476
- 4 SepLReal Betis La Liga2489
Villarreal
9th in La Liga · 8 pts from 7
- 20 SepWLevante La Liga2151
- 17 SepWMalaga La Liga2131
- 14 SepLReal Betis La Liga2150
- 8 SepLBorussia Dortmund UEFA Champions League2156
- 5 SepLDeportivo La Coruna La Liga2168
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 15 /7 | 84.0 | 10% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| Villarreal | 8 /7 | 56.0 | 0% | 4% | <1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Real Madrid · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.5 (Elite) · Elo 2541
Villarreal · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 2297
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Real Madrid: possession-based · creative (how José Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix plays) · Villarreal: balanced profile (how Iñigo Pérez Soto plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.