La Liga · Regular Season - 9
Real Madrid 4–1 Sevilla
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid
Real MadridTeam 2510SevillaTeam 2104Match story
Real Madrid · draw · SevillaBefore kick-off: 77% · 15% · 8%
Last reading, 90+5': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Arda Güler 30'
- Kylian Mbappé 37'
- Kylian Mbappé 63' (pen)
- Yan Diomande 82'
We gave Real Madrid 77% to win: they did.
- 23'Felix Correia 2139 −1Sevilla:Felix Correia 2139 −1
- Dean Huijsen 2537 −1*23'Real Madrid:Dean Huijsen 2537 −1*
- Arda Güler 2389 +16 assist Yan Diomande 2400 +1830'Real Madrid:Arda Güler 2389 +16 assist Yan Diomande 2400 +18
- Kylian Mbappé 2567 +9 assist Jude Bellingham 2565 +837'Real Madrid:Kylian Mbappé 2567 +9 assist Jude Bellingham 2565 +8
- 45'Chidera Ejuke 1994 −9* for Rubén Vargas 2253 −11*Sevilla:Chidera Ejuke 1994 −9* for Rubén Vargas 2253 −11*
- 56'Lucas Stassin 1888 −8* for Robbie Ure 1962 0Sevilla:Lucas Stassin 1888 −8* for Robbie Ure 1962 0
- 56'Manuel Bueno Sebastián 1704 −8* for Peque Fernández 1896 −8*Sevilla:Manuel Bueno Sebastián 1704 −8* for Peque Fernández 1896 −8*
- Kylian Mbappé 2567 +9 (pen.)63'Real Madrid:Kylian Mbappé 2567 +9 (pen.)
- 69'Juan Antonio Iglesias Sánchez 2183 −3Sevilla:Juan Antonio Iglesias Sánchez 2183 −3
- Brahim Díaz 2480 −7* for Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa 2196 +869'Real Madrid:Brahim Díaz 2480 −7* for Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa 2196 +8
- Bernardo Silva 2519 −1 for Jude Bellingham 2565 +870'Real Madrid:Bernardo Silva 2519 −1 for Jude Bellingham 2565 +8
- 72'José Ángel Carmona 2143 −8* for Juan Antonio Iglesias Sánchez 2183 −3Sevilla:José Ángel Carmona 2143 −8* for Juan Antonio Iglesias Sánchez 2183 −3
- 73'Alfonso González Martínez 1898 −1 for Felix Correia 2139 −1Sevilla:Alfonso González Martínez 1898 −1 for Felix Correia 2139 −1
- Marc Cucurella 2594 +373'Real Madrid:Marc Cucurella 2594 +3
- Eduardo Camavinga 2507 +1 for Arda Güler 2389 +1678'Real Madrid:Eduardo Camavinga 2507 +1 for Arda Güler 2389 +16
- 80'Manuel Bueno Sebastián 1704 −8* assist Lucas Stassin 1888 −8*Sevilla:Manuel Bueno Sebastián 1704 −8* assist Lucas Stassin 1888 −8*
- Yan Diomande 2400 +18 assist Aurelien Tchouameni 2543 +1182'Real Madrid:Yan Diomande 2400 +18 assist Aurelien Tchouameni 2543 +11
- Carlos Espí 1865 +1 for Kylian Mbappé 2567 +985'Real Madrid:Carlos Espí 1865 +1 for Kylian Mbappé 2567 +9
- Éder Militão 2404 −8* for Federico Valverde 2509 +1185'Real Madrid:Éder Militão 2404 −8* for Federico Valverde 2509 +11
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 77% · 15% · 8%(Real Madrid · draw · Sevilla)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (10%); the result 4–1 had 6%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Real Madrid €58.1M, Sevilla €9.5M.
- Real Madrid were without 1 expected starter: Vinícius Júnior (2516).
- Draw chance was 14%, below the La Liga average of 23% this round.
- Style contrast in discipline (La Liga): Real Madrid ranked #3 of 20, Sevilla #17.
- Real Madrid's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Real Madrid
4th in La Liga · 18 pts from 8
- 14 OctWAS Roma UEFA Champions League2471
- 10 OctWVillarreal La Liga2449
- 20 SepLAtletico Madrid La Liga2494
- 15 SepWElche La Liga2475
- 12 SepWRayo Vallecano La Liga2453
Sevilla
5th in La Liga · 14 pts from 8
- 12 OctDLevante La Liga2052
- 19 SepLBarcelona La Liga2110
- 16 SepWDeportivo La Coruna La Liga2077
- 11 SepWValencia La Liga2078
- 6 SepDEspanyol La Liga1981
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 18 /8 | 85.5 | 7% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| Sevilla | 14 /8 | 53.6 | 0% | 2% | <1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Real Madrid · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.0 (Good) · Elo 2557
Sevilla · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2220
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Real Madrid: possession-based · creative (how José Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix plays) · Sevilla: balanced profile (how Luis García Plaza plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.