La Liga · Regular Season - 13
Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Real Madrid host Celta Vigo on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (La Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Real Madrid 81%, draw 13%, Celta Vigo 6%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Real Madrid €56.7M, Celta Vigo €7.9M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of La Liga matchday 13: 482 points.
- Draw chance 13%, below the La Liga average of 24% this round.
- Style contrast in dribbling (La Liga): Real Madrid rank #1 of 20, Celta Vigo #17.
- Real Madrid's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Real Madrid goals first.
- 2–013%
- 3–012%
- 1–010%
- 2–18%
- 4–08%
- 3–18%
- Other scores41%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.3 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.8 pts
Team Elo: Real Madrid 2538 · Celta Vigo 2056
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Real Madrid · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.0 (Elite) · Elo 2623
Celta Vigo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 2005
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Real Madrid
2nd in La Liga · 30 pts from 12
- 7 NovWValencia La Liga2539
- 4 NovWAEK Athens FC UEFA Champions League2504
- 1 NovWRacing Santander La Liga2530
- 25 OctWBarcelona La Liga2502
- 21 OctWRB Leipzig UEFA Champions League2486
Celta Vigo
11th in La Liga · 13 pts from 12
- 8 NovDLevante La Liga2004
- 5 NovLUnion St. Gilloise UEFA Europa League2080
- 31 OctLRayo Vallecano La Liga2060
- 25 OctDReal Betis La Liga2045
- 22 OctWCeltic UEFA Europa League2024
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 30 /12 | 91.0 | 20% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| Celta Vigo | 13 /12 | 43.7 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Real Madrid: possession-based · creative (how José Mourinho plays) · Celta Vigo: balanced profile (how Claudio Giráldez plays)