La Liga · Regular Season - 13
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid
Rayo Vallecano host Valencia on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (La Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Rayo Vallecano 46%, draw 28%, Valencia 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Rayo Vallecano €4.5M, Valencia €5.0M.
- All 11 of Rayo Vallecano's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Rayo Vallecano goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–011%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 0–08%
- 0–18%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.8 pts
Team Elo: Rayo Vallecano 2021 · Valencia 2009
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Rayo Vallecano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 2088
Valencia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Good) · Elo 2114
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Rayo Vallecano
14th in La Liga · 12 pts from 11
- 8 NovLReal Sociedad La Liga2038
- 31 OctWCelta Vigo La Liga2029
- 27 OctDRecreativo Huelva Spain Copa del Rey1860
- 24 OctLElche La Liga2019
- 19 OctDGetafe La Liga2038
Valencia
19th in La Liga · 9 pts from 12
- 7 NovLReal Madrid La Liga2048
- 1 NovWElche La Liga2042
- 24 OctLVillarreal La Liga2018
- 17 OctDAthletic Club La Liga2038
- 11 OctDRacing Santander La Liga2050
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 12 /11 | 43.0 | 0% | 0% | 9% | 9th |
| Valencia | 9 /12 | 41.1 | 0% | 0% | 16% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Rayo Vallecano: balanced profile (how Beñat San José plays) · Valencia: balanced profile (how J. Aguirre plays)