La Liga · Regular Season - 11
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid
Rayo Vallecano host Celta Vigo on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (La Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Rayo Vallecano 42%, draw 29%, Celta Vigo 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Rayo Vallecano €4.7M, Celta Vigo €8.7M.
- Home advantage makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite here: it adds 10 points to their win chance; La Liga has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- All 11 of Rayo Vallecano's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Rayo Vallecano goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.5 pts
Team Elo: Rayo Vallecano 2031 · Celta Vigo 2071
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Rayo Vallecano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2090
Celta Vigo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2029
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Rayo Vallecano
14th in La Liga · 8 pts from 7
- 19 SepDOsasuna La Liga2083
- 15 SepWEspanyol La Liga2010
- 12 SepLReal Madrid La Liga1978
- 5 SepWRacing Santander La Liga2050
- 31 AugLBarcelona La Liga2007
Celta Vigo
8th in La Liga · 11 pts from 9
- 18 OctWAlaves La Liga2071
- 15 OctLJuventus UEFA Europa League2105
- 11 OctDElche La Liga2089
- 19 SepWRacing Santander La Liga2031
- 16 SepLOmonia Nicosia UEFA Europa League2078
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 8 /7 | 45.7 | 0% | 0% | 5% | 10th |
| Celta Vigo | 11 /9 | 47.7 | 0% | <1% | 2% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Rayo Vallecano: balanced profile (how Beñat San José Gil plays) · Celta Vigo: balanced profile (how Claudio Giráldez González plays)