La Liga · Regular Season - 8
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
Rayo VallecanoTeam 2026Athletic ClubTeam 2100Live chances
Rayo Vallecano · draw · Athletic ClubBefore kick-off: 39% · 29% · 32%
Now, 33': 35% · 35% · 30%
Most likely final score (live)
- 0–0 18%
- 1–0 16%
- 0–1 14%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club on Sat 10 Oct 2026 (La Liga): before kick-off, on the confirmed line-ups, our model gave Rayo Vallecano 39%, draw 29%, Athletic Club 32%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Rayo Vallecano €4.0M, Athletic Club €8.3M.
- Athletic Club are without 2 expected starters: Oihan Sancet (2286) and Nico Williams (2330).
- All 11 of Rayo Vallecano's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Before kick-off: 39% · 29% · 32%(Rayo Vallecano · draw · Athletic Club)
Confirmed line-ups
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Rayo Vallecano
13th in La Liga · 8 pts from 7
- 19 SepDOsasuna La Liga2083
- 15 SepWEspanyol La Liga2010
- 12 SepLReal Madrid La Liga1978
- 5 SepWRacing Santander La Liga2050
- 31 AugLBarcelona La Liga2007
Athletic Club
10th in La Liga · 8 pts from 6
- 19 SepDAlaves La Liga2183
- 12 SepDElche La Liga2226
- 5 SepWAtletico Madrid La Liga2186
- 30 AugWCelta Vigo La Liga2140
- 27 AugLBarcelona La Liga2113
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 8 /7 | 47.4 | 0% | <1% | 4% | 10th |
| Athletic Club | 8 /6 | 59.8 | 0% | 11% | <1% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Rayo Vallecano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2090
Athletic Club · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 2160
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Rayo Vallecano: balanced profile (how Beñat San José Gil plays) · Athletic Club: balanced profile (how Edin Terzić plays)