Bundesliga · Regular Season - 10
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Allianz Stadion, Vienna
Rapid Vienna host Austria Lustenau on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Rapid Vienna 66%, draw 20%, Austria Lustenau 13%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Rapid Vienna €1.3M, Austria Lustenau €313K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Bundesliga matchday 10: 306 points.
- Draw chance 20%, below the Bundesliga average of 26% this round.
- Style contrast in chance creation (Bundesliga): Rapid Vienna rank #2 of 12, Austria Lustenau #12.
- Rapid Vienna's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.0 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Rapid Vienna goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Rapid Vienna 1832 · Austria Lustenau 1526
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Rapid Vienna · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.2 (Elite) · Elo 1951
Austria Lustenau · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1536
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Rapid Vienna
1st in Bundesliga · 24 pts from 9
- 16 OctWTSV Hartberg Austrian Bundesliga1885
- 11 OctWLask Linz Austrian Bundesliga1852
- 18 SepWWSG Wattens Austrian Bundesliga1832
- 12 SepWWolfsberger AC Austrian Bundesliga1749
- 2 SepLRed Bull Salzburg Austrian Bundesliga1807
Austria Lustenau
9th in Bundesliga · 8 pts from 9
- 17 OctLLask Linz Austrian Bundesliga1490
- 11 OctLTSV Hartberg Austrian Bundesliga1534
- 19 SepWSCR Altach Austrian Bundesliga1482
- 13 SepLAustria Vienna Austrian Bundesliga1493
- 28 AugLWSG Wattens Austrian Bundesliga1486
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid Vienna | 24 /9 | 45.8 | 39% | 99% | 0% | 1st |
| Austria Lustenau | 8 /9 | 19.4 | 0% | 0% | 76% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: low-volume
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Rapid Vienna: balanced profile (how Johannes Hoff Thorup plays) · Austria Lustenau: direct (how Markus Mader plays)