Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 10
Radomiak Radom 2–3 Motor Lublin
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Radom
Radomiak RadomTeam 1585
Motor LublinTeam 1622Match story
Radomiak Radom · draw · Motor LublinBefore kick-off: 40% · 30% · 31%
Last reading, 90+4': 0% · 4% · 96%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Filip Koperski 24'
- Steve Kingue 80'
- Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye 53'
- Karol Czubak 70' (pen)
- Christopher Simon 90+2'
We gave Radomiak Radom 40% to win: Motor Lublin won.
- 9'Christopher Simon 1632 +72*
Motor Lublin:Christopher Simon 1632 +72* - 18'Kamil Lukoszek 1660 +17*
Motor Lublin:Kamil Lukoszek 1660 +17* - 23'Bartosz Bereszyński 1607 +5*
Motor Lublin:Bartosz Bereszyński 1607 +5* - Filip Koperski 1367 −8* assist Jan Grzesik 1647 −18*24'
Radomiak Radom:Filip Koperski 1367 −8* assist Jan Grzesik 1647 −18* - Christos Donis 1549 −11*33'
Radomiak Radom:Christos Donis 1549 −11* - 38'Makan Aiko 1548 +14*
Motor Lublin:Makan Aiko 1548 +14* - Lucas Lima Linhares 1685 −14* for Elves Baldé 1612 −9*45'
Radomiak Radom:Lucas Lima Linhares 1685 −14* for Elves Baldé 1612 −9* - 53'Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye 1726 +51* assist Makan Aiko 1548 +14*
Motor Lublin:Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye 1726 +51* assist Makan Aiko 1548 +14* - 61'Fabio Ronaldo Costa Conceicao 1699 −1* for Makan Aiko 1548 +14*
Motor Lublin:Fabio Ronaldo Costa Conceicao 1699 −1* for Makan Aiko 1548 +14* - 61'Marek Kristian Bartos 1662 −2* for Bartosz Bereszyński 1607 +5*
Motor Lublin:Marek Kristian Bartos 1662 −2* for Bartosz Bereszyński 1607 +5* - Guilherme Luiz 1555 −8* for Bi Irié Fernand Gouré 1520 −8*61'
Radomiak Radom:Guilherme Luiz 1555 −8* for Bi Irié Fernand Gouré 1520 −8* - Abdoul Tapsoba 1658 −10* for Rafał Wolski 1623 −17*62'
Radomiak Radom:Abdoul Tapsoba 1658 −10* for Rafał Wolski 1623 −17* - 70'Karol Czubak 1744 +47* (pen.)
Motor Lublin:Karol Czubak 1744 +47* (pen.) - Ibrahima Camará 1636 −9* for Roberto Oliveira Alves 1717 −20*73'
Radomiak Radom:Ibrahima Camará 1636 −9* for Roberto Oliveira Alves 1717 −20* - 77'Mateusz Legowski 1849 −6* for Rony Lopes 1649 +11*
Motor Lublin:Mateusz Legowski 1849 −6* for Rony Lopes 1649 +11* - Steve Kingue 1698 −42* assist Ibrahima Camará 1636 −9*80'
Radomiak Radom:Steve Kingue 1698 −42* assist Ibrahima Camará 1636 −9* - Manu 1343 −8* for Ronaldo Lumungo 1283 −8*83'
Radomiak Radom:Manu 1343 −8* for Ronaldo Lumungo 1283 −8* - Lucas Lima Linhares 1685 −14*84'
Radomiak Radom:Lucas Lima Linhares 1685 −14* - 86'Marek Kristian Bartos 1662 −2*
Motor Lublin:Marek Kristian Bartos 1662 −2* - 87'Paskal Konrad Meyer 1451 −6* for Yacine Bourhane 1624 +18*
Motor Lublin:Paskal Konrad Meyer 1451 −6* for Yacine Bourhane 1624 +18* - 90+2'Christopher Simon 1632 +72*
Motor Lublin:Christopher Simon 1632 +72*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 40% · 30% · 31%(Radomiak Radom · draw · Motor Lublin)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–3 had 2%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Radomiak Radom €416K, Motor Lublin €530K.
- Home advantage made Radomiak Radom the favourite: it added 8 points to their win chance.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Radomiak Radom
15th in Ekstraklasa · 8 pts from 9
- 20 SepLLech Poznan Ekstraklasa1570
- 14 SepLPiast Gliwice Ekstraklasa1586
- 5 SepDWidzew Łódź Ekstraklasa1586
- 29 AugWCracovia Krakow Ekstraklasa1547
- 23 AugDZaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa1567
Motor Lublin
16th in Ekstraklasa · 6 pts from 9
- 19 SepDGornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa1630
- 11 SepLRaków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa1676
- 5 SepLLegia Warszawa Ekstraklasa1688
- 29 AugLPiast Gliwice Ekstraklasa1633
- 22 AugDKorona Kielce Ekstraklasa1640
Season outlook
From the Ekstraklasa simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radomiak Radom | 8 /9 | 35.4 | 0% | <1% | 53% | 18th |
| Motor Lublin | 6 /9 | 36.9 | 0% | <1% | 40% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Radomiak Radom · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1639

Motor Lublin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1607
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Radomiak Radom: direct (how Rafał Grzyb plays) · Motor Lublin: balanced profile (how Mariusz Misiura plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.