La Liga · Regular Season - 11
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Estadio El Sardinero, Santander
Racing Santander host Real Madrid on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (La Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Racing Santander 11%, draw 18%, Real Madrid 71%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Racing Santander €3.9M, Real Madrid €65.5M.
- Draw chance 18%, below the La Liga average of 24% this round.
- Real Madrid's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Racing Santander goals first.
- 0–211%
- 1–29%
- 0–39%
- 1–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–38%
- Other scores47%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com0–2expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–2expected 5.0 pts
Team Elo: Racing Santander 1918 · Real Madrid 2482
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Racing Santander · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1985
Real Madrid · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.0 (Good) · Elo 2565
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Racing Santander
16th in La Liga · 8 pts from 9
- 18 OctLOsasuna La Liga1956
- 11 OctDValencia La Liga1965
- 19 SepLCelta Vigo La Liga1931
- 16 SepLBarcelona La Liga1891
- 12 SepWAlaves La Liga1916
Real Madrid
3rd in La Liga · 21 pts from 9
- 18 OctWSevilla La Liga2464
- 14 OctWAS Roma UEFA Champions League2471
- 10 OctWVillarreal La Liga2449
- 20 SepLAtletico Madrid La Liga2494
- 15 SepWElche La Liga2475
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | 8 /9 | 36.9 | 0% | 0% | 39% | 19th |
| Real Madrid | 21 /9 | 85.2 | 6% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Racing Santander: balanced profile (how José Alberto López Menéndez plays) · Real Madrid: possession-based · creative (how José Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix plays)