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Championship · Regular Season - 10

QPR 4–1 Derby

Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Loftus Road, London

QPR crestQPRTeam 1858
4–1
Full time
HT 3–0
Derby crestDerbyTeam 1846

Match story

QPR · draw · Derby

Before kick-off: 42% · 29% · 29%

Live chances: QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0% at 90+11'1' · 0–0 · QPR 42%, draw 29%, Derby 29%2' · 0–0 · QPR 42%, draw 29%, Derby 29%3' · 0–0 · QPR 42%, draw 29%, Derby 29%4' · 0–0 · QPR 42%, draw 29%, Derby 29%5' · 0–0 · QPR 42%, draw 29%, Derby 29%6' · 0–0 · QPR 42%, draw 29%, Derby 29%7' · 0–0 · QPR 42%, draw 30%, Derby 29%8' · 0–0 · QPR 42%, draw 30%, Derby 29%9' · 0–0 · QPR 42%, draw 30%, Derby 29%10' · 0–0 · QPR 41%, draw 30%, Derby 29%11' · 0–0 · QPR 41%, draw 30%, Derby 28%12' · 0–0 · QPR 41%, draw 30%, Derby 28%13' · 0–0 · QPR 41%, draw 31%, Derby 28%14' · 0–0 · QPR 41%, draw 31%, Derby 28%15' · 0–0 · QPR 41%, draw 31%, Derby 28%16' · 0–0 · QPR 41%, draw 31%, Derby 28%17' · 0–0 · QPR 40%, draw 31%, Derby 28%18' · 0–0 · QPR 40%, draw 31%, Derby 28%19' · 1–0 · QPR 71%, draw 20%, Derby 10%20' · 1–0 · QPR 71%, draw 20%, Derby 10%21' · 1–0 · QPR 71%, draw 20%, Derby 9%22' · 1–0 · QPR 71%, draw 20%, Derby 9%23' · 2–0 · QPR 92%, draw 6%, Derby 2%24' · 2–0 · QPR 92%, draw 6%, Derby 2%25' · 2–0 · QPR 92%, draw 6%, Derby 2%26' · 2–0 · QPR 92%, draw 6%, Derby 2%27' · 2–0 · QPR 92%, draw 6%, Derby 2%28' · 2–0 · QPR 92%, draw 6%, Derby 2%30' · 2–0 · QPR 92%, draw 6%, Derby 2%31' · 2–0 · QPR 92%, draw 6%, Derby 2%32' · 2–0 · QPR 93%, draw 6%, Derby 2%33' · 2–0 · QPR 93%, draw 6%, Derby 2%34' · 2–0 · QPR 93%, draw 6%, Derby 1%36' · 2–0 · QPR 93%, draw 6%, Derby 1%37' · 2–0 · QPR 93%, draw 6%, Derby 1%38' · 2–0 · QPR 93%, draw 6%, Derby 1%39' · 2–0 · QPR 93%, draw 6%, Derby 1%41' · 2–0 · QPR 93%, draw 5%, Derby 1%43' · 2–0 · QPR 94%, draw 5%, Derby 1%44' · 2–0 · QPR 94%, draw 5%, Derby 1%45+1' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%45+2' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%45+4' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%45+5' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%45+6' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%45+7' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%45+8' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%45+10' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%HT · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%47' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%48' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%49' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%50' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%51' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%52' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%53' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%54' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%55' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%56' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%57' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%58' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 1%, Derby 0%59' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 0%, Derby 0%60' · 3–0 · QPR 99%, draw 0%, Derby 0%61' · 3–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%62' · 3–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%63' · 3–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%64' · 3–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%65' · 3–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%66' · 3–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%67' · 3–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%68' · 3–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%69' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%70' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%71' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%72' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%73' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%74' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%75' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%76' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%77' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%78' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%79' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%80' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%81' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%82' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%83' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%84' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%85' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%86' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%87' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%88' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%89' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%90' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%90+1' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%90+2' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%90+3' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%90+4' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%90+5' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%90+6' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%90+7' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%90+8' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%90+9' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%90+10' · 4–0 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%90+11' · 4–1 · QPR 100%, draw 0%, Derby 0%

Last reading, 90+11': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave QPR 42% to win: they did.

  1. 12'Derby:Ryan Nyambe 1730 −9* for Sondre Langas 1903 −2
  2. 18'QPR:Alfie Lloyd 1430 +109* assist Boy Kemper 1763 +77
  3. 22'QPR:Nicolas Madsen 2034 +47 (pen.)
  4. 24'Derby:D. Ozoh 1885 −5
  5. 28'Derby:John Eustace
  6. 44'Derby:Sammie Szmodics 1847 −8
  7. 45'QPR:Harvey Vale 1947 +42
  8. 45'Derby:Lewis Travis 1884 −15* for D. Ozoh 1885 −5
  9. 45'Derby:Henrik Wendel Meister 1530 0 for Mohammed Fuseini 1963 −10
  10. 56'Derby:Henrik Wendel Meister 1530 0
  11. 57'QPR:Harvey Vale 1947 +42
  12. 60'QPR:Glen Kamara 2009 +15
  13. 62'QPR:Richard Kone 1963 +6 for Rayan Jawad Kolli 1854 +19
  14. 62'QPR:Jonathan Varane 1941 +7 for Alfie Lloyd 1430 +109*
  15. 62'QPR:Kwame Poku 1869 +8 for Harvey Vale 1947 +42
  16. 63'Derby:Lars-Jørgen Salvesen 1641 −2 for Carlton Morris 1894 −11
  17. 68'QPR:Paul Smyth 1969 +48 assist Nicolas Madsen 2034 +47
  18. 70'Derby:Filip Bilbija 1929 −11* for Sammie Szmodics 1847 −8
  19. 72'QPR:Amadou Salif Mbengue 1939 +3 for Boy Kemper 1763 +77
  20. 77'QPR:Leon Scarlett for Paul Smyth 1969 +48
  21. 90+10'Derby:Lars-Jørgen Salvesen 1641 −2

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-3-3Formations4-2-3-1
GP. Charles2148+28
DK. Adamson1707+38
DJ. Dunne2025+48
DR. Edwards2035+48
DB. Kemper1763+77
MN. Madsen2034+47
MH. Vale1947+42
MG. Kamara2009+15
FA. Lloyd1430+109*
FRayan Jawad Kolli1854+19
FP. Smyth1969+48
CJulien Stéphan1999+35
GJ. Vickers1829−4
DJ. Ward1907−17
DS. Langås1903−2
DD. Sanderson1917−15
DR. Hedges1815−6
MA. Mowatt1824−7
MD. Ozoh1885−5
MM. Fuseini1963−10
MB. Clark1897−13
MS. Szmodics1847−8
FC. Morris1894−11
CJ. Eustace1879−21
Before kick-off: 42% · 29% · 29%(QPR · draw · Derby)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 4–1 had 2%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: QPR €2.4M, Derby €2.5M.
  • Derby were without 2 expected starters: J. Widell Zetterström (1896) and C. Taylor (1737).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

QPR

8th in Championship · 14 pts from 9

  • 9 OctDWest Ham 1886
  • 19 SepDPreston 1943
  • 12 SepDWest Brom 1921
  • 9 SepDCharlton 1873
  • 5 SepLMiddlesbrough 1929

Derby

23rd in Championship · 6 pts from 9

  • 10 OctDWrexham 1900
  • 19 SepDBurnley 1874
  • 12 SepLBirmingham 1866
  • 9 SepLWest Brom 1892
  • 5 SepLWest Ham 1857

Season outlook

From the Championship simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
QPR14 /960.4<1%3%5%15th
Derby6 /948.20%0%47%23rd
QPR
Derby

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Championship

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

P. Charles
P. Charles

QPR · +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2120

A. Mowatt
A. Mowatt

Derby · +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1832

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Julien Stéphan

Coach DNA: balanced profile

John Mark Eustace

Coach DNA: direct

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

QPR: balanced profile (how Julien Stéphan plays) · Derby: direct (how John Mark Eustace plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.