Super League · Regular Season - 27
Qingdao Jonoon 0–3 Beijing Guoan
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 11:35 UTC · Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao
Qingdao JonoonTeam 1444Beijing GuoanTeam 1801We gave Beijing Guoan 58% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 18% · 24% · 58%(Qingdao Jonoon · draw · Beijing Guoan)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 0–3 had 6%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Qingdao Jonoon €239K, Beijing Guoan €618K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Super League matchday 27: 255 points.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Super League): Qingdao Jonoon ranked #4 of 18, Beijing Guoan #17.
- Qingdao Jonoon's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.0 over 180 days.
- Beijing Guoan were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Qingdao Jonoon
16th in Super League · 14 pts from 26
- 5 SepLDalian Zhixing Chinese Super League1520
- 29 AugLWuhan Three Towns Chinese Super League1660
- 23 AugLShanghai SIPG Chinese Super League1604
- 14 AugLShandong Luneng Chinese Super League1623
- 8 AugLShanghai Shenhua Chinese Super League1614
Beijing Guoan
3rd in Super League · 38 pts from 26
- 15 SepWPohang Steelers AFC Champions League1716
- 5 SepDShanghai SIPG Chinese Super League1739
- 28 AugDDalian Zhixing Chinese Super League1820
- 22 AugDYunnan Yukun Chinese Super League1820
- 18 AugWShanghai Shenhua Chinese Super League1803
Season outlook
From the Super League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao Jonoon | 14 /26 | 18.6 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 16th |
| Beijing Guoan | 38 /26 | 45.1 | 0% | 82% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Qingdao Jonoon · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1751
Beijing Guoan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.2 (Elite) · Elo 1850
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Qingdao Jonoon: balanced profile (how Milan Ristić plays) · Beijing Guoan: possession-based (how Nick Montgomery plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.