Premyer Liqa · Regular Season - 11
Qarabag vs Turan
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku
Qarabag host Turan on Fri 6 Nov 2026 (Premyer Liqa); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Qarabag 60%, draw 23%, Turan 16%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Qarabag €1.3M, Turan €376K.
- Premyer Liqa: M. Zlomislić is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2078).
- A. Guseynov, Álex Serrano, H. Hurtado, Henrique, E. Hackman, Jorge Silva, I. Wadji and R. Miller (Turan) have not played for over 90 days.
- Turan are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Qarabag goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Qarabag 1821 · Turan 1579
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; Turan from last season's line-ups (latest 27 April 2026).
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Qarabag · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1879
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Qarabag
3rd in Premyer Liqa · 17 pts from 7
- 11 OctWImisli FK Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1825
- 27 AugLTwente UEFA Conference League1776
- 20 AugWTwente UEFA Conference League1744
- 13 AugWDynamo Kyiv UEFA Conference League1737
- 6 AugLDynamo Kyiv UEFA Conference League1765
Turan
4th in Premyer Liqa · 14 pts from 8
- 27 AprDZira Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1583
- 15 MarDKapaz Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1601
- 9 MarWNeftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1575
- 1 MarDImisli FK Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1592
- 25 JanWSumqayıt Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1588
Season outlook
From the Premyer Liqa simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qarabag | 17 /7 | 72.9 | 56% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Turan | 14 /8 | 51.0 | <1% | 51% | <1% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: low-volume