Premyer Liqa · Regular Season - 8
Qarabag 3–3 Neftchi Baku
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku
QarabagTeam 1815Neftchi BakuTeam 1584- O. Kashchuk 18'
- R. Cephas 89'
- Gustavo Klismahn 11', 34'
- D. Savic 52'
We gave Qarabag 59% to win: it ended in a draw.
- 11'Gustavo Klismahn –Neftchi Baku:Gustavo Klismahn –
- O. Kashchuk –18'Qarabag:O. Kashchuk –
- 34'Gustavo Klismahn –Neftchi Baku:Gustavo Klismahn –
- 41'L. Tupta –Neftchi Baku:L. Tupta –
- 46'B. Sambou – for A. Akinyemi –Neftchi Baku:B. Sambou – for A. Akinyemi –
- 46'D. Savic – for L. Tupta –Neftchi Baku:D. Savic – for L. Tupta –
- 52'D. Savic –Neftchi Baku:D. Savic –
- R. Cephas – for J. Mouaddib –64'Qarabag:R. Cephas – for J. Mouaddib –
- J. Montiel – for Pedro Bicalho –64'Qarabag:J. Montiel – for Pedro Bicalho –
- 74'M. Seck – for R. Abbasov –Neftchi Baku:M. Seck – for R. Abbasov –
- M. Qurbanly – for Z. Sawo –76'Qarabag:M. Qurbanly – for Z. Sawo –
- S. Lobato – for C. Makreckis –76'Qarabag:S. Lobato – for C. Makreckis –
- 78'Neftchi Baku:
- 82'I. Mathew – for Gustavo Klismahn –Neftchi Baku:I. Mathew – for Gustavo Klismahn –
- R. Cephas –89'Qarabag:R. Cephas –
- 90+4'Neftchi Baku:
- 90+5'Qarabag:
- 90+6'Neftchi Baku:
Before kick-off (provisional): 59% · 24% · 17%(Qarabag · draw · Neftchi Baku)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 3–3 had 1%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Qarabag €1.3M, Neftchi Baku €435K.
- Premyer Liqa: M. Zlomislić was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2078).
- Unknown (581320), E. Safarov, F. Vargas and A. Shtogrin (Neftchi Baku) had not played for over 90 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Qarabag
3rd in Premyer Liqa · 16 pts from 6
- 11 OctWImisli FK Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1825
- 27 AugLTwente UEFA Conference League1776
- 20 AugWTwente UEFA Conference League1744
- 13 AugWDynamo Kyiv UEFA Conference League1737
- 6 AugLDynamo Kyiv UEFA Conference League1765
Neftchi Baku
1st in Premyer Liqa · 16 pts from 7
- 30 JulWDinamo Minsk UEFA Conference League1581
- 22 JulLDinamo Minsk UEFA Conference League1613
- 5 MayWKarvan Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1529
- 5 AprWSumqayıt Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1575
- 20 MarWImisli FK Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1525
Season outlook
From the Premyer Liqa simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qarabag | 16 /6 | 73.4 | 60% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Neftchi Baku | 16 /7 | 56.9 | 1% | 83% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Qarabag · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Elite) · Elo 1879
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –